BBM voters could shift to Moreno or Pacquiao, says analyst

If supporters of presidential aspirant Ferdinand Marcos Jr. would change their minds on who to vote for the May 2022 elections, it would be either for Manila Mayor Isko Moreno or Sen. Manny Pacquiao, a political analyst said.

Presidential aspirants Sen. Manny Pacquiao, Bongbong Marcos, and Manila Mayor Isko Moreno. (FILE PHOTO / MANILA BULLETIN)

Professor Dindo Manhit, president of think tank Stratbase Albert del Rosario Institute (ADRi), described Moreno and Pacquiao as "strong second choices" who could chip away votes from the support base of frontrunner Marcos Jr.

"Manny Pacquiao or Isko Moreno could take away votes the moment there is a question on the characteristics of the personality of candidate Marcos Jr.," Manhit said in an online forum.

"If you suddenly have a doubt in this candidate as the first choice, the vote can go to Moreno or to Pacquiao," he added.

According to Manhit, Marcos Jr.'s support base is composed of solid supporters of his father, late dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., and President Duterte, where it is "not possible" for another presidential aspirant Vice President Leni Robredo to take away votes.

Marcos Jr. has dominated the Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations surveys commissioned by Stratbase with a huge lead over his closest rival, Robredo.

While Marcos Jr. continues to lead surveys less than three months before the elections, Manhit noted that these do not predict the results of the actual elections.

He added that pre-election surveys are only "snapshots of the moment" showing the public's sentiment at the specific time it was conducted.

However, Manhit said there are two scenarios that could happen in the May 2022 elections - a landslide win for Marcos Jr. or a tight race where one candidate will win by a little over 30 percent.

"It could be a landslide for Marcos on May 9 or a tight race where we will simply have somebody at a little over 30 percent winning the presidency," he added.