There is “zero or one” tropical cyclone that may enter or form within the country’s area of responsibility in January 2023, based on the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s (PAGASA) monthly average tropical cyclone frequency from 1948 to 2021.

PAGASA said that climatological tracks for the month of January suggest three most common tracks:

Tropical cyclones form within the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) but recurve and do not make landfall.

Tropical cyclones form within PAR and make landfall in the eastern part of Visayas, then recurve towards the northern part of PAR before dissipating.

Tropical cyclones form in the Western Pacific, which may enter PAR and make landfall in central Philipines before dissipating.

Meanwhile, PAGASA said the La Niña—which increases the likelihood of having above normal rainfall conditions—is now weakening.

“It is expected to persist until December-January-February 2023, then transition to ENSO-neutral (El Niño Southern Oscillation-neutral) afterwards,” PAGASA said.

La Niña is responsible for excessive rainfall in some parts of the country, which has caused floods and landslides, especially in areas vulnerable to these hazards.

Based on the PAGASA’s rainfall forecast, “generally near to above normal” rainfall conditions are likely in most parts of the country except for some areas in Abra, Ilocos Region, and most of Central Luzon, which may receive “below normal” rainfall in January.

However, PAGASA said the probability of above normal rainfall conditions is still high.

By February, PAGASA said “generally near to above normal” rainfall conditions are likely in most parts of Cagayan Valley, CALABARZON (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon), Visayas, and Mindanao.

It added that most of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Region, and Central Luzon may receive “below normal” rainfall, but there is still a “high” probability of above normal rainfall conditions in Southern Luzon and Visayas.