Metro Manila’s Covid-19 weekly growth rate now at 56%, says OCTA

Metro Manila Weekly Positivity Rate (OCTA RESEARCH FELLOW DR. GUIDO DAVID / TWITTER)

The number of Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila rose again from the seven-day average of 264 cases on Nov. 24, to 411 cases as of Dec. 1, which means a weekly growth rate of 56 percent, according to the latest monitoring of the OCTA Research.

In an update posted on social media on Friday, Dec. 2, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that other Covid-19 indicators also increased, particularly the positivity rate, which is most likely driven by the Omicron subvariant BQ.1.

He noted that the seven-day positivity rate—or the percentage of individuals who yielded positive results from those tested for Covid-19—went up from 9.4 percent on Nov. 23 to 11.9 percent on Nov. 30.

The World Health Organization recommended that the positivity rate should remain at 5 percent or less to show that the spread of the virus is under control.

“This rate of increase in the positivity rate in the National Capital Region is around the same rate of increase during the omicron BA.5 wave (from June) and the XBB (from September),” David said.

“This projects to a December BQ.1 wave similar to the BA.5 and XBB waves,” he added.

Moreover, the reproduction number—or the average number of secondary infections—increased from 1.11 on Nov. 21 to 1.32 on Nov. 28.

A reproduction number of less than 1 shows a decrease in infections.

David also noted that the average daily attack rate or incidence rate was at 2.85 per 100,000 population.

While hospital utilization remained “low,” it also increased from 26 percent on Nov. 23 to 28 percent on Nov. 30, he added.