An infectious diseases expert believes that another surge in Covid-19 cases is unlikely this coming holiday season.

This was stated by Dr. Edsel Salvana, a member of the Department of Health (DOH) Technical Advisory Group, during the Laging Handa public briefing on Monday, Nov. 28 in relation to the new Omicron subvariant BQ.1.

He explained that the Omicron subvariant BA.2 which entered the country in January, was more severe than BA.1 in terms of effectivity. He added that the Omicron subvariant BQ.1 came from BQ.1.1 and bivalent vaccines also protect against these, aside from BA.1, at BA.2.

"If ever tumaas man dahil siyempre nakikihalubilo ang mga tao during Christmas at mas lumalabas, I do not think it will be as dramatic as the number of cases na nakita natin last January, after Christmas (If ever it goes up because the public will be more mobile during Christmas I do not think it will be as dramatic as the number of cases we saw last January, after Christmas)," he said.

"I think ang mangyayari dito, bagama’t puwedeng tumaas ay bahagya lang po iyong taas na iyan and because mataas ang antas ng pagbabakuna ay hindi po mapupuno iyong ating ospital (I think what will happen here, even though cases may increase but only a bit because of high vaccination rate is that hospitals will not be filled up)," he added.

No evidence that BQ.1 is more severe

According to Salvana, BQ.1 which is related to BA.5 which is the dominant subvariant in the world right now, has additional mutations which can increase immune escape against infections from the vaccines but there is no evidence that it's more severe.

"Ang ibig sabihin lang nito ay okay, alam naman natin na nagmu-mutate iyong virus, ang importante ay alam natin kung paano protektahan ang sarili natin – magpa-boost po tayo at kinakailangan po talaga for now ay manatili iyong paggamit natin ng mask lalung-lalo na doon sa ating mga vulnerable population (What this means is that okay, we know that the virus is mutating and what's important is we know how to protect ourselves - get boosted and to wear masks for now especially for the vulnerable population)," he said.

What's important, Salvana said, is that the country is now headed towards endemicity, and what needs to be monitored right now is the healthcare utilization capacity which remains to be low. He explained that cases can go up but a lot of it will be mild as long as the vaccination rate remains to be high, boosters are being acquired, and face masks are being used.

In the event that Covid-19 cases would increase, Salvana said that it would not go up higher than 5,000. He reiterated that the majority of these cases will be mild and will not require hospitalization.

Salvana reminded the public that the vaccines remain effective in preventing severe Covid-19 disease and it can be observed now. He added that the World Health Organization (WHO) mentioned that the current Covid-19 vaccines continue to protect even those that are monovalent, but because this new subvariant of Omicron has an increased immune escape it can still infect people but most of the infections are going to be mild.