Tropical cyclone wind signals may be hoisted over parts of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region as early as Thursday morning, Oct. 27, due to the expected strong winds from tropical depression Paeng.

“Based on the latest forecast scenario, tropical cyclone wind signal may be hoisted for some areas in Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region tomorrow morning (Oct. 27) at the earliest,” PAGASA said in its 11 p.m., tropical cyclone bulletin on Wednesday, Oct. 26.

As of Wednesday, tropical depression Paeng maintained its maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 55 kph.

“Paeng is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm tomorrow (Oct. 27) further intensification is likely while moving over the Philippine Sea and may reach typhoon category by Saturday (Oct. 29),” PAGASA said.

If Paeng reaches typhoon status, the highest wind signal that can be raised is Signal No 4.

“Landfall at or near peak intensity is increasingly likely,” PAGASA added.

Landfall possible over mainland Cagayan Valley or northern Aurora by Sunday

Tropical depression Paeng was last spotted 725 kilometers east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.

PAGASA said it is likely to move west until Thursday morning or noon before turning west-northwest or northwest the rest of Thursday until Sunday afternoon, Oct. 30, while approaching Northern Luzon.

“On the forecast track, a landfall scenario is possible within any of the coastal areas along the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan Valley or the northern portion of Aurora on Sunday,” PAGASA said.

From Friday, Oct. 28, to early Saturday, Oct. 29, moderate to intense rains are possible over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

Light to heavy rains are also possible in Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, Quezon, Isabela, Cagayan, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Visayas.

From early Saturday to early Sunday, Oct. 30, heavy to torrential rains may prevail over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran, while moderate to intense rains are likely over Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Aurora, Bulacan, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Western Visayas, eastern portions of Isabela and Cagayan, and the rest of Eastern Visayas.

Meanwhile, light to heavy rains are possible over Palawan, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, mainland BARMM, and the rest of Visayas, mainland Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon.

“Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall,” PAGASA warned.

In the next 24 hours, heavy rains may also affect Visayas, most of Southern Luzon, and northern and western portions of Mindanao due to the shear line and trough or extension of Paeng.