Several parts of Luzon and Visayas will have a stormy holiday weekend as tropical cyclone Paeng (international name: Nalgae) is expected to dump heavy rains as early as Friday, Oct. 28.

In a press conference on Thursday, Oct. 27, PAGASA senior weather specialist Raymond Ordinario said that they consider this weekend a “crucial period” because Paeng may likely cross mainland Luzon.

“We can see that we have a high pressure system in southern China which is directly affecting the movement of storm Paeng,” Ordinario said in Filipino.

Since PAGASA’s last forecast at 5 a.m., Paeng’s forecast track has shifted down by 300 kilometers, he pointed out.

“So we are still seeing the shifting of its track and we are not eliminating the possibility that it will hit here in the Bicol Region area and will cross the Southern Tagalog and come out in the Central Luzon area,” he added.

According to PAGASA Administrator Vicente Malano, Paeng may make landfall over Quezon or Aurora by Sunday, Oct. 30.

However, if the cyclone speeds up and its track descends further, Malano said there is a possibility of an earlier landfall over Catanduanes on Saturday, Oct. 29.

Brace for heavy rains

Due to the wide circulation of the storm, rains may start to affect several parts of the country as early as Friday, Oct. 28.

PAGASA Weather Division chief Jun Galang said Paeng has a diameter of 460 kilometers.

He said Paeng may bring “significant rainfall” and strong winds to Metro Manila, Bicol Region, and Southern Luzon from Friday to Sunday.

From Friday morning to evening, moderate to intense rains may prevail over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

Light to heavy rains may also affect Quezon, Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Aurora, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Visayas.

From Friday evening to Saturday, Oct. 29, heavy to torrential rains may persist in Bicol Region, Northern Samar, and Quezon.

Moderate to intense rains may also prevail over Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Aurora, Bulacan, Marinduque, Romblon, the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela, Western Visayas, and the rest of Eastern Visayas.

Light to heavy rains may also affect Palawan, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, and the rest of Visayas, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon.

“Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall,” PAGASA warned.

“On Tuesday, Nov. 1, the storm has almost passed the landmass but still expect some rains in northern Luzon,” Galang said.

‘Paeng’ may remain inside PAR until 1st week of Nov.

“In our latest forecast track, instead of going directly outside the PAR (Philippine area of responsibility), due to the movement of the high pressure system in southern China, it will drag the storm and it will remain inside the PAR until the first week of November,” Ordinario said.

The storm will be pulled towards the northern boundary of the PAR before its exit, he also said.

“That’s what may happen, so we will closely monitor this storm because we also see, based on the forecast track within the next 24 hours, it can become a severe tropical storm. By Saturday, it is possible that it will become a typhoon,” he added.

When it becomes a typhoon, Ordinario said it is possible to raise Signal No. 4 in the Bicol Region and Signal No. 3 in Eastern Visayas.

“There are two things to watch out for in storm Paeng—first, its wind strength and second, its amount of rain—as it moves across Southern Luzon and Central Luzon,” he pointed out.

Galang said the storm may have already almost passed the landmass by Tuesday, Nov. 1, but northern Luzon may still experience some rains.

Meanwhile, Southern Luzon, Central Luzon, and Western Visayas will have generally improved weather.