Cyclone Paeng (international name: Nalgae) has intensified into a tropical storm prompting the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to raise Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 over six areas in Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas before Thursday noon, Oct. 27.
In its 11 a.m. bulletin issued on Thursday, PAGASA hoisted Signal No. 1 in Catanduanes, eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu), eastern portion of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, Gubat, Barcelona, Bulusan, Santa Magdalena, Irosin, Juban, Casiguran, City of Sorsogon), Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, and Samar due to the expected strong winds from the approaching storm.
PAGASA said Paeng’s maximum sustained winds increased to 65 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center, from 55 kph six hours ago, while its gustiness increased to 80 kph, from 70 kph, previously.
“Further intensification is likely while moving over warm waters of the Philippine Sea. Paeng is forecast to reach severe tropical storm category within 24 hours and may intensify into a typhoon by Saturday. The occurrence of rapid intensification in the next 72 hours is not ruled out,” PAGASA said.
“Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4, in anticipation of typhoon-force conditions associated with Paeng,” it pointed out.
Oct. 30 landfall
PAGASA said tropical storm Paeng was estimated 540 kilometers east of Borongan City in Eastern Samar as of 10 a.m., and is moving west-northwestward at 10 kph.
“Tropical storm Paeng is forecast to track generally west-northwestward over the Philippine Sea through Sunday (Oct. 30), while moving towards the central or northern portion of Luzon,” PAGASA said.
“On the forecast track, Paeng may pass close to Catanduanes on Saturday (Oct. 29), and a landfall scenario is possible on Sunday within any of the coastal areas along the eastern portions of Central Luzon or mainland Cagayan Valley,” it added.
However, PAGASA has not ruled out a possible southward shift in the forecast landfall, which could be over the eastern portion of Southern Luzon, due to the recent shift in Paeng’s track.
Due to the wide circulation of the storm, rains may start to affect several parts of the country as early as Friday, Oct. 28.
From Friday morning to evening, moderate to intense rains may prevail over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.
Light to heavy rains may also affect Quezon, Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Aurora, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Visayas.
From Friday evening to Saturday, Oct. 29, heavy to torrential rains may persist in Bicol Region, Northern Samar, and Quezon.
Moderate to intense rains may also prevail over Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Aurora, Bulacan, Marinduque, Romblon, the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela, Western Visayas, and the rest of Eastern Visayas.
Light to heavy rains may also affect Palawan, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, and the rest of Visayas, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon.
“Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall,” PAGASA warned.