Tropical depression Paeng has slightly intensified while moving over the Philippine Sea, prompting the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to raise Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal over parts of Samar Island on Thursday morning, Oct. 27.
In its 5 a.m. bulletin, PAGASA placed the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad, City of Borongan) and the eastern portion of Northern Samar (Lapinig, Gamay, Mapanas, Palapag, Laoang, Pambujan, Catubig, Las Navas) under Signal No. 1 due to the expected strong winds from Paeng.
“Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4, in anticipation of typhoon-force conditions associated with Paeng,” PAGASA said.
As of Wednesday, the weather disturbance has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 70 kph.
“Paeng may further intensify while moving over warm waters of the Philippine Sea. It is forecast to reach tropical storm category within 24 hours and may become a typhoon by Saturday (Oct. 29). The occurrence of rapid intensification in the next 72 hours is not ruled out,” PAGASA said.
Shift in forecast track
The center of tropical depression Paeng was last spotted 660 kilometers east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
“Tropical depression Paeng is forecast to track generally west-northwestward over the Philippine Sea through Sunday (Oct. 30), while moving towards the northern or central portion of Luzon. On the forecast track, a landfall scenario is possible on Sunday within any of the coastal areas along the eastern portions of Central Luzon or mainland Cagayan Valley,” PAGASA said.
It pointed out that with the recent shift in the forecast track, “a possible southward shift in the possible area of landfall—i.e. towards the eastern portions of Central or Southern Luzon—is not ruled out at this time.”
Heavy rainfall
PAGASA said moderate to intense rains are likely over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas until Friday evening, Oct. 28.
Light to heavy rains are also possible over Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, Quezon, Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Aurora, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Visayas.
From Friday evening to Saturday, Oct. 29, heavy to torrential rains may prevail over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, and Quezon.
Meanwhile, moderate to intense rains are possible over Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Aurora, Bulacan, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela, Western Visayas, and the rest of Eastern Visayas.
Light to heavy rains may also persist in Palawan, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, and the rest of Visayas, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon.
“Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall,” PAGASA warned.