Tropical depression Paeng may reach the typhoon category prior to landfall over northern Luzon by weekend, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its latest bulletin.
In its 5 p.m. bulletin issued on Wednesday, Oct. 26, PAGASA said Paeng has maintained its maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 55 kph.
“Paeng is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm tomorrow (Oct. 27) further intensification is likely while moving over the Philippine Sea and may reach the typhoon category prior to its landfall,” it said.
A typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 118 kph to 184 kph.
In a press conference, PAGASA senior weather specialist Raymond Ordinario said Paeng may intensify into a typhoon by Saturday, Oct. 29, and may hit the Isabela-Cagayan area on Sunday, Oct. 30.
“This is the scenario we are looking at right now,” he said in Filipino.
As of 4 p.m., Wednesday, tropical depression Paeng was estimated to be 945 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas, and was moving westward at 10 kph.
“Tropical depression Paeng is forecast to track generally westward until tomorrow afternoon (Oct. 27) before turning west northwestward for the remainder of tomorrow through Saturday afternoon (Oct. 30), while moving towards Northern Luzon. On the forecast track, this tropical cyclone is forecast to maintain this heading until it makes landfall on the eastern coast of Isabela or Cagayan,” PAGASA said.
However, Ordinario has not ruled out the possibility of a lower cyclone track.
If the weather disturbance takes a lower track, it may hit the central-southern Luzon area, which may also directly affect Metro Manila.
He asked those in Luzon to prepare for the approaching cyclone.
Signal No. 4 likely
As early as Thursday, Oct. 27, PAGASA may raise tropical cyclone wind signal over some portions of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region in anticipation of strong winds from Paeng.
“Per latest track and intensity forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4,” it added.
From early Friday to early Saturday, Oct. 28 to Oct. 29, Bicol Region may experience heavy to intense rains.
Moderate to intense rains may also prevail over Eastern Visayas, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan, while light to heavy rains are possible over Rizal, Laguna, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Cordillera Administrative Region, and the rest of Visayas and Cagayan Valley.
From early Saturday to Sunday afternoon, Oct. 29 to Oct. 30, heavy to torrential rains may persist in Bicol Region, Cagayan Valley, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, northern portion of Zambales, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan.
Meanwhile, moderate to intense rains are possible over Ilocos Norte, Metro Manila, Batangas, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region and Central Luzon.
Light to heavy rains are likely over Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon.
“Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall,” PAGASA said.