The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday afternoon, Oct. 24, said the low pressure area (LPA) east of the country may likely to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
The LPA, which is embedded within the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), was estimated 950 kilometers (km) east-northeast of Mindanao or 995 km east of Eastern Visayas around 3 p.m., Monday.
“Sa kasalukuyan, wala pa itong direct effect sa anumang bahagi ng ating bansa ngunit sa ating latest analysis ay meron itong posibilidad na ma-develop at maging isang bagyo within 48 hours (Currently, it does not have a direct effect on any part of our country, but according to our latest analysis, it has the possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours),” weather specialist Grace Castañeda said in a live update posted on the PAGASA’s official social media page.
The next name to be given to the tropical cyclone that will form within the PAR is “Paeng.”
Castañeda noted that the uncertainty of the track of the weather disturbance is still quite high where three possible scenarios are being considered.
“Meron tayong dalawang landfalling scenario at meron namang non-landfalling scenario (We have two landfalling scenarios and a non-landfalling scenario),” she said.
In the non-landfalling scenario where it will not hit any part of the country, Castañeda said the weather disturbance may only cross the Philippine Sea as it heads northward.
“Samantala yung dalawa naman nating landfalling scenario, yung isa doon generally pa-northwestward patungo dito sa bahagi ng northern and central Luzon at yung isa naman nating landfalling scenario, posibleng mababa ang track nito kung saan posible itong tumungo sa southern Luzon-Visayas area (Meanwhile, in our two landfalling scenarios, one scenario shows a generally northwestward track toward parts of northern and central Luzon. As for the other landfalling scenario, it may have a lower track where it may head for the southern Luzon-Visayas area),” she explained.
However, Castañeda pointed out that in all scenarios, PAGASA sees a high chance the trough or extension of the weather disturbance may cause rains in the eastern part of the country as early as Wednesday, Oct. 26.
She advised the public to monitor regularly PAGASA’s updates regarding this weather disturbance.
In the next 24 hours, PAGASA said the ITCZ may bring cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over Palawan, Visayas, and Mindanao.
The State weather bureau warned against possible flash floods or landslides during moderate to heavy rains.
Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or “amihan” may bring cloudy skies and rains over Batanes.
Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte may also experience scattered rain showers and thunderstorms due to the shear line.
The rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of rain showers or thunderstorms due to localized thunderstorms.