The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is monitoring a new low pressure area (LPA) outside the country’s area of responsibility, which has a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next few days.

In a weather update posted on PAGASA’s official social media page, weather specialist Benison Estareja said the LPA was located 1,460 kilometers east of Mindanao at 4 a.m., Sunday, Oct. 23.

He said it is possible that the weather disturbance will remain a low pressure area when it enters the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) within 36 hours or by Monday morning, Oct. 24.

According to Estareja, as the LPA approaches the country’s landmass on Tuesday to Wednesday, Oct. 25 to 26, it may gradually gather energy, especially when it enters the warm part of the Philippine Sea.

“Kaya naman mataas ang tsansa na ito’y maging isang bagyo, base sa ating tropical cyclone threat forecast at papangalanang Paeng kung saka-sakali (That’s why there is a high chance that this will become a tropical cyclone, based on our tropical cyclone threat forecast. It will be named Paeng in case it becomes a tropical cyclone),” he said.

“Pagdating naman ng Thursday (Oct. 27), lalapit naman ito sa ating kalupaan at nandun na ang scenario na posibleng mag-landfall ito somewhere sa Luzon or even Eastern Visayas, base na rin sa ating climatology (Come Thursday, it will approach our land and there is a scenario that it may make landfall in Luzon or Eastern Visayas, based on our climatology),” he added.

Estareja advised the public to continue to monitor PAGASA’s updates regarding this weather disturbance.

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) will be the dominant weather systems in the country in 24 hours.

The ITCZ—in which the LPA being monitored is embedded—may bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over Mindanao.

PAGASA warned against possible flash floods or landslides during moderate to heavy rains.

ITCZ is a region where winds coming from the northeast and southeast hemispheres converge that triggers thunderstorms and rain showers.

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon, locally called “amihan,” may bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains over the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera Administrative Region.

The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of rain showers or thunderstorms due to localized thunderstorms.