The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Thursday, Oct. 13 said that tropical depression Neneng will likely pass very close or make landfall in Babuyan Islands or Batanes by Sunday, Oct. 16.

In its first cyclone bulletin for Neneng, PAGASA estimated the location of the tropical depression 1,030 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon and moving westward at 30 kilometers per hour (kph), as of 5 p.m.

“This tropical cyclone is forecast to move west-southwestward in the next 24 hours before turning westward on Saturday (Oct. 15) while decelerating,” PAGASA said.

“By Sunday (Oct. 16), it will begin to track west-northwestward towards extreme Northern Luzon. On the track forecast, Neneng will make landfall or may pass very close in the Babuyan Islands or Batanes,” it added.

PAGASA said Neneng may bring heavy rains over Northern Luzon beginning Saturday.

“Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding—including flash floods—and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards,” it warned.

Further intensification likely

PAGASA said Neneng’s maximum sustained winds increased to 55 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center, from 45 kph six hours ago, while its gustiness increased to 70 kph, from 55 kph previously.

“Neneng is forecast to further intensify while moving over the Philippine Sea and may reach tropical storm category by Saturday,” PAGASA said.

The possibility of further intensification prior to its close approach to the extreme Northern Luzon area is also not ruled out.

PAGASA said that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No.1 may be hoisted as early as Friday morning or afternoon, Oct. 14, over the eastern portion of Northern Luzon in anticipation of strong winds from the cyclone.

“Per latest track and intensity forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 2,” it said.

Neneng entered the Philippine area of responsibility at 12 p.m. on Thursday, just hours after tropical depression Maymay weakened into a low pressure area.