Tropical depression Maymay is now expected to make landfall over Aurora province on Thursday morning, Oct. 13, as it continues to move slowly over the Philippine Sea on Tuesday night, Oct. 11, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its latest bulletin.

Maymay was located 270 kilometers (km) east of Casiguran, Aurora or 320 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora around 10 p.m. on Tuesday, and continues to move slowly south-southwestward.

It has maintained its maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 55 kph.

“Tropical depression Maymay is forecast to move slowly westward or remain almost stationary in the next 12 hours before it gradually accelerates westward toward Central Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of this tropical cyclone may make landfall in the vicinity of Aurora by Thursday morning. Afterwards, the center of Maymay will traverse the landmass of Central Luzon,” PAGASA said.

As such, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 remains hoisted over Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and the extreme northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands.

PAGASA said strong winds—strong breeze to near gale strength—may be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.

Moreover, moderate to intense rains may prevail over Cagayan and Isabela, while light to heavy rains may persist in Aurora in the next 24 hours.

“Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding, including flash floods, and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps, and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall,” PAGASA said.

PAGASA said that Maymay will probably maintain its strength before landfall.

However, due to frictional effects as it passes through Central Luzon, this tropical cyclone may be downgraded to a remnant low, it pointed out.

Tropical depression outside PAR

PAGASA is also continuously monitoring a tropical depression outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) as it may enter the region by Thursday.

In its 11 p.m. bulletin, PAGASA said the weather disturbance was last seen 2,140 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon.

It has maintained its maximum sustained winds of 45 kph and gustiness of 55 kph, while moving northward at 20 kph.

Once inside the PAR, this tropical depression will be locally called “Neneng.”

“Current track and intensity forecast shows that there is a high likelihood that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals will be hoisted over Batanes and several provinces in Northern Luzon. The highest possible wind signal that may be hoisted is Signal No. 2,” PAGASA said.

The passage of this tropical cyclone over extreme Northern Luzon may bring heavy rainfall over the area beginning Saturday, Oct. 15.