The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) risk level of Metro Manila could further go down to "moderate risk" by Valentine's Day, Feb. 14, as the region continued to see a steady decline in new cases, said OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David.

During the Laging Handa public briefing on Monday, Jan. 24, David noted that the COVID-19 growth rate in Metro Manila is slowing down and that the reproduction number is down to 1.03.

He said that Metro Manila is on track to record less than 1,000 COVID-19 cases per day by Valentine's Day. Metro Manila had 5,000 new cases on Jan. 23.

By the time it reaches less than 1,000 daily cases, the COVID risk level in the region can be downgraded from "high risk" to "moderate risk," David said.

"Mas mabilis pa siyang bumaba kaysa sa projection namin, which is good. Medyo in line siya sa nangyari sa South Africa (It is even faster than our projection, which is good. It's a bit in line with the experience of South Africa)," he added.

He said that cases in Metro Manila started steadily going down on Jan. 15, after reaching the peak of the surge with 18,700 cases on Jan. 10.

In a forum on Jan. 21., David had said that the "decrease of new cases in the NCR is nearly as rapid as the increase during the surge," which is very similar to what had happened in South Africa where the Omicron variant of COVID-19 was first detected.

Metro Manila's current risk level is at "very high," based on the risk assessment tool developed by the Harvard Global Health Institute, Apple, Microsoft, and Bloomberg, which is being used by OCTA to help assess the country's risk level for COVID-19.

However, David pointed out that placing the region under Alert Level 2 by the first week of February can be a premature move.

"Personally, kung nasa 2,000 cases per day pa tayo (sa NCR) by first week of Feb, baka premature ibaba sa Alert Level 2 (Personally, if we have in 2,000 cases per day in NCR by the first week of February, it could be premature to shift to Alert Level 2)," David said.