Metro Manila COVID-19 cases on 'downward trajectory'; fall below 10,000 after 2 weeks -- OCTA

The number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila is on a "downward trajectory" as cases fall below 10,000 for the first time in two weeks, the independent research group OCTA said on Wednesday, Jan. 19.
" NCR (National Capital Region's) new cases on a downward trajectory as the reproduction number decreased to 1.79 and the weekly growth rate becomes negative at -10 percent," OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David said in a tweet.
Based on the data of the Department of Health, Metro Manila registered 8,376 new COVID-19 cases on Jan. 19.
"The last time the NCR had less than 10,000 cases in one day was exactly two weeks ago, on Jan. 5, when the surge was still accelerating," David said.
He pointed out that the "pattern is very similar to the South Africa experience of a rapid surge followed by a dramatic decrease in infections."
David said that Metro Manila's current COVID-19 reproduction number of 1.79 is a significant improvement from 4.42 a week ago, while the weekly growth rate was negative for the first time since Dec. 24, 2021.
"While this is encouraging news, it must be emphasized that NCR remains at critical risk as the ADAR and the positivity rate are still above critical levels," David said.
The ADAR or incidence rate refers to the number of new daily cases per 100,000 population, while the positivity rate refers to the percentage of individuals who yielded positive results from among those who were tested for COVID-19.
"Residents are advised not to be complacent and still comply strictly with minimum public health standards so as not to prolong the surge of infections," David said.