The OCTA Research Group has observed that the seven-day Covid-19 growth rate in Metro Manila has decreased to -1 percent as of Aug. 14, which could be the beginning of a downtrend in infections in the central region.
In an update shared on Twitter on Monday, Aug. 15, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said that Metro Manila’s Covid-19 growth rate was at 9 percent on Aug. 9.
“This could be the start of a downward trend, although the one week growth rate will have to decrease even further, e.g. -50 percent, to see significant decreases in daily new cases in the NCR (National Capital Region),” he pointed out.
David pointed out that Metro Manila remained at “moderate risk” for Covid-19.
He said that the reproduction number—or the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual—has decreased to 1.15 on Aug. 11, from 1.21 on Aug. 4.
“The positivity rate also decreased from 17.4 percent, as of August 6, to 16.2 percent, as of August 13,” he added.
Positivity rate is the number of individuals who yielded positive results from among those who were tested for Covid-19.
Moreover, David said that Metro Manila’s average daily attack rate decreased “slightly” to 8.70 per 100,000 population on Aug. 14, from 8.77 per 100,000 population on Aug. 7.
However, he noted that the healthcare utilization increased slightly to 37 percent on Aug. 13, from 36 percent on Aug. 8, while ICU occupancy remained at 31 percent over the same period.