Two or three tropical cyclones are likely to develop or enter the country’s area of responsibility in August, based on the 1948-2021 climatological record of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
According to PAGASA, the four common climatological tracks in August are as follows:
A tropical cyclone may enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) but it moves north of the country. It does not make landfall, instead; it moves towards Japan. However, the cyclone may enhance the southwest monsoon or “habagat.”
A tropical cyclone may move towards the northwestern part of the PAR. It also does not make landfall as it “recurves” towards Taiwan. However, the cyclone may also enhance the habagat.
A tropical cyclone may make landfall over the extreme northern islands of the Philippines.
A tropical cyclone may make landfall, then traverse the eastern and northern parts of the Visayas.
Based on its rainfall forecast for August, PAGASA said that most parts of the country will likely receive near normal rainfall except for some parts of western of Luzon where below normal rainfall is expected and above normal condition in some areas of Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao and Caraga.
The weather also projected that the La Niña has a 55 to 70 percent chance of prevailing until the December-January-February season.
PAGASA said the La Niña is responsible for the excessive rainfall in some parts of the country that triggers floods and landslides, especially in areas vulnerable to these hazards.
‘Habagat’ to prevail
In the next 24 hours, the southwest monsoon enhanced by tropical depression Ester will bring “light to moderate to at times heavy rains” over Bataan, Zambales, and Palawan.
“Under these conditions, scattered flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely, especially in the areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in the hazards maps and in areas with significant antecedent rainfall,” PAGASA said.
Meanwhile, the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy condition with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
PAGASA also warned against flash floods or landslides that may occur during severe thunderstorms, which are often accompanied by sudden heavy rains, lightning, thunder, gusty winds, and sometimes hail.