Metro Manila’s Covid-19 cases may peak by 2nd or 3rd week of July — OCTA


With the steady increase in new infections in Metro Manila, the OCTA Research Group projected that the Covid-19 cases in the region may peak between the first and second week of July.

In a televised briefing on Monday, July 4, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David noted that Metro Manila’s Covid-19 growth rate was at 50 percent but that it has slowed down in the past week

The region’s reproduction number was at around 1.5 to 1.6, while the positivity rate increased from 6 percent to 8.3 percent.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, while positivity rate refers to the number of individuals who yielded positive results from among those who have been tested for Covid-19.

David said that while the Covid growth rate in some areas in Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon) is increasing, the growth rate in Metro Manila has slowed down but is still increasing.

“We’re hoping the peak will come within one to two weeks. From there, baka magkaroon na ng downtrend (there may already be a downtrend). But then these are just projections. Baka magbago pa ito (These may still change),” David said.

“Medyo bumabagal na ang growth rate. Medyo stable na siya. Di na masyado tumataas ang reproduction number at growth rate. That’s why we’re expecting one to two weeks, baka bababa na ang bilang ng kaso (The growth rate is slowing down a bit. It is pretty stable. The reproduction number and growth rate are not increasing much. That’s why we’re expecting one to two weeks, maybe the number of cases will decrease),” he added.