Covid-19 cases may hit 5k-10k daily once Omicron subvariants spread in PH — OCTA

The country’s new Covid-19 cases recorded per day may reach 5,000 to 10,000 “any time,” based on the current trends of virus in countries with similar situation as the Philippines, the independent research group OCTA said on Tuesday, April 26.

“Inevitable na tataas ang cases natin dahil nagbukas na ang ekonomiya meron tayong mga bagong subvariants outside the country that may come in (Inevitably our cases will increase because the economy has opened up and we have new Covid subvariants outside the country that may come in),” OCTA president Ranjit Rye said in a televised briefing.

OCTA fellow Guido David said the increase in cases could happen “any time.”

“We are seeing an increase in cases sa South Africa and Delhi, India. These are countries na medyo similar yung characteristics sa Philippines (We are seeing an increase in cases in South Africa and Delhi, India. These are countries that have somewhat similar characteristics to the Philippines),” David said.

“Ang concern natin eh kapag nakapasok itong panibagong subvariant dito sa Philippines, magkakaroon na rin ng pagtaas ng cases (Our concern is that when this new subvariant enters the Philippines, there will also be an increase in cases),” he added.

Although OCTA said that their assessment could still change, David said that “as of now, preliminary, we are projecting up to 50 to 100,000 active cases, which means around 5,000 cases per day or even 10,000 cases per day.”

“Hindi natin nakikita na maging kasing taas ng naging surge natin noong January pero at the same time itong surge sa South Africa at India bago pa lang sila so mino-monitor pa natin kasi kung maging mataas sila, magiging concerned din tayo baka maging ganyan din ang mangyari sa Philippines (We don’t see it being as high as our surge in January but at the same time this surge in South Africa and India is just happening now so we are still monitoring it because if cases become high, we will also be concerned that it might be the same in the Philippines),” David explained.

Possible yung surge ay may similar trajectory ng nakita natin noong January na mabilis makapanghawa, mabilis dumami, at mabilis ring bumagsak yung bilang ng kaso dahil we have high number of vaccinations in certain key areas (It is possible that the surge has a similar trajectory to what we saw in January that spread quickly, increased rapidly, and also dropped quickly because we have a high number of vaccinations in certain key areas),” he pointed out.

Rye and David stressed that the severity of the potential surge can be mitigated.

“Kailangan patuloy yung vaccinations at boosters para mapigilan or ma-prevent natin itong possible surges na pwedeng mangyari. Preventable naman yan basta magdagdag tayo ng protection natin bago makakita ng pagtaas ng cases (We need continuous vaccinations and boosters to prevent these possible surges that may occur. That is preventable as long as we intensify our protection before we see an increase in cases,” David said.

David added that OCTA is not expecting a high number of hospitalizations just like in January because of the high vaccine coverage.

“Dahil mataas ang vaccine coverage natin, baka hindi naman natin kailangan mag-lockdown. Baka mama-manage natin ang hospital utilization dahil konti lang ang severe . Because our vaccine coverage is high, we may not need to implement a lockdown. We may be able to manage hospital utilization because there would only be a few severe cases,” he said.

“Kaya natin ma-prevent yan o ma-mitigate yan o mapababa pa yan. Hindi namin nirerekomenda na mag-lockdown. Ang nirerekomenda ng OCTA ay lalong i-monitor at i-enforce ng ating mga local governments yung ating minimum public health standards at laging maging handa sa mga Covid response (We can prevent, mitigate, or lower the increase in cases. We do not recommend lockdown. OCTA recommends that our local governments increasingly monitor and enforce our minimum public health standards and always be prepared for Covid responses),” Rye said.

“Sa mga kababayan natin, tuloy tuloy ang pagsunod sa minimum public health standards (For our countrymen, we must continue to adhere to the minimum public health standards),” he add