As cases are projected to rise by May, and waning immunity threatens vulnerable sectors of the population, experts are raising concerns and emphasizing the urgency for booster vaccinations.
This was the consensus among experts at Go Negosyo’s town hall meeting, “Booster to the Max,” held online on April 25.
During the event, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Ranjit Rye said they believe that the number of Covid-19 cases will rise, making the business sector worried that it might send the country back to more restrictive measures and disrupt its economic recovery.
According to Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship Joey Concepcion, going back to a higher alert level status would spell disaster for the country. Most of the areas in the Philippines are currently under Alert Level 1.
“It’s going to be disastrous if we move back to Alert Level 3 status,” he said.
The Go Negosyo founder explained that the Ukraine crisis has already made it more challenging for the economy to gain momentum fully and that waning immunity may send Covid cases rising again.
“We can’t afford two problems at the same time,” Concepcion added.
During the event, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David presented data that might point to a rise in cases in the Philippines.
“The increase in new Covid cases in South Africa, India, and the US makes it likely that the Philippines will see an increase in cases soon,” he said.
He pointed out that the three countries have had the same pandemic trend in the past as the Philippines and are likely predictive of what may happen in the Philippines.
“How high and when, we don’t know yet,” he said, but added that the rise in cases may happen “maybe May or June."
OCTA’s Fr. Nicanor Austriaco had similar observations amidst the emergence of three Omicron variants that stand to become more of a threat than relaxed compliance with health standards. He shared that while South Africa and the US are experiencing variant-driven spikes, there is no sign that hospitalizations are increasing.
He did, however, warn that even as the cases tend to be mild, Filipinos who have lost their immunity will become more vulnerable. He said that while masks help, these are not preventative and that booster vaccination is more important.
Meanwhile, Department of Health (DOH) Secretary Francisco Duque reiterated that vaccines make a difference.
"There is no question; vaccines are the game changer, lalo na sa matatanda (especially for the elderly),” he said.
The elderly comprise a large share of the casualties. Data showed that 85 percent of those who had severe Covid were unvaccinated, while 93 percent of those who died were also unvaccinated.
Dr. Teodoro Herbosa of the government’s Vaccine Expert Panel (VEP) warned that an outbreak could likely happen among the unvaccinated in areas where vaccination rates are below 50 percent.
He reported that although 74.67 percent (or 67,209,612 million) of the country’s target population have been fully vaccinated, only 12.9 million have booster shots.
Meanwhile, the VEP’s Dr. Nina Gloriani said that the general finding is that antibodies wane after three to six months and that boosters restore antibodies to as high as a hundred-fold.
Infectious disease specialist and VEP member Dr. Rontgene Solante said that many who had their primary vaccines last November to October might not be able to be protected and need to get their booster shot.
The town hall meeting came after the World Health Organization projected 300,000 active Covid cases in the Philippines by May amid lax compliance with public health protocols. The DOH likewise noted the rise in cases in 14 areas. Daily vaccination uptake has also slowed to a little over 200,000 from a high of 1.5 million last November.
OCTA’s Dr. Rye, however, ensured that there were things that could be done to avert the disaster.
“The way forward is vaccinations and boosters,” he said.
“There are drivers for the increase in infections, but it will not be a concern if we are boostered. We can participate in the elections; we can enjoy these things for longer when the economy is open,” he added.