Based on the latest results of the Pulse Asia survey, the May 2022 presidential election is now more looking like a race between former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Leni Robredo, Pulse Asia’s Research Director Ana Maria Tabunda said.

Tabunda shared her observation in an interview with ANC on Wednesday, April 6, following the release of the March 2022 Pulse Asia Ulat ng Bayan survey results for the May 2022 elections.

“It is more of a two-way race between Vice President Leni Robredo and former Senator Bongbong Marcos Jr.,” she said in answering a question on whether the election is a three-way race with the Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso who continued to be the top second-choice presidential candidate.

Tabunda however, stressed that the public should wait for the results of the pre-election survey closest to the May 9 elections.

“We always say we should always look at the survey that is closest to election day itself. Just one more (survey) in April. We will come out with the results in the latter part of April or early May,” she said.

Can Robredo still catch up with Marcos in surveys?

Meanwhile, Tabunda said there has to be “larger increases” in Robredo’s voter preference and “larger decreases” in Marcos’ voter preference for the former to catch up in the presidential surveys.

In the Pulse Asia’s Ulat ng Bayan pre-election survey conducted from March 17 to 21, Robredo gained nine percentage points to attain a voter preference score of 24 percent, from 15 percent in February.

“It is telling that some of their (Robredo’s camp) efforts are bearing fruit,” Pulse Asia Research Director Ana Maria Tabunda said in an ANC interview.

Meanwhile, Marcos was still leading despite a four percentage point drop in his score from 60 percent to 56 percent. “Its just some voters are probably making up their minds, shifting ,” Tabunda said of the decline in Marcos’ score.

Tabunda said the nine-point increase in Robredo’s voter preference is a significant improvement, while Marcos’ four-point decline in voter preference is “not a significant drop.”

“He will have to insert more effort if he wants to maintain a wider lead,” she pointed out.

But with little over a month before the May 2022 elections, Tabunda said “larger increases” in Robredo’s voter preference and “larger decreases” in Marcos’ voter preference must be seen for the vice president to catch up with Marcos in the surveys.

“If the same trend continues, no , because the increase is not enough. There has to be larger declines in his voter preference and larger increases in Vice President Leni’s voter preference for her to be able to catch up,” Tabunda said.

“The gap between them is 32 percentage points. If Bongbong Marcos loses 16 points and Leni Robredo gains 16 points, they will be statistically tied. So you need larger than 16 percentage point decline for Bongbong Marcos and larger than 16 percentage point increase for Leni Robredo,” she explained.