Vice President Leni Robredo’s closest rival former Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. may be leading in election surveys, but analytics from social media showed otherwise.
Robredo, the lone female presidential candidate in the May 2022 elections, surpassed Marcos this month when it comes to Facebook engagement score, which is perceived to help measure potential voters of a certain candidate.
According to data scientists Wilson Chua and Roger Do, Robredo made the biggest jump from February to March on social sentiments on Facebook.
“Starting March 1, VP Leni is now ahead of BBM (Bongbong Marcos),” Chua said during a recent interview on NET25’s “Pinoy Scientist”, hosted by Dr. Guido David of OCTA Research.
From February 12 to 17, Robredo got 38.54 percent or 4,799,593 total engagements on Facebook, trailing Marcos by five points.
However, based on their latest computation of 58 million data points from Facebook, Chua said the tides have turned and Robredo now leads Marcos by five points in March, with a total of 8 million engagements over her rival’s 7.5 million.
“It predicts an even larger engagement score for Leni in the coming weeks,” Chua said.
The latest survey results from Pulse Asia showed Marcos leading with 60 percent and Robredo only with 16 percent.
Other survey firms such as Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Publicus Asia showed the same difference in numbers.
But the data scientist said he expects the results based on the analytics will be reflected in the next surveys.
David also agreed with Chua’s view, believing there would be significant changes in the surveys of big polling firms come March and April.
During election campaigns, Do said they use these type of data to understand the impact of their message on swing voters.
Based on data, soft voters and swing voters are now moving to Robredo’s side. “She will probably gain an increase in voters’ preference,” David said.