As I watched the news about Ukraine, I was appalled at how civilians are greatly affected by this offensive move by Russia. One woman was interviewed about how she was so worried about this invasion when the Russian forces at that time were just being deployed near the country and her husband was just telling her that she was just panicky and nothing of that sort will happen. And now it's happening and she found it incredible that this thing is now a reality.
There are several repercussions of this invasion and the whole world will be affected. For the Philippines and for all countries in the whole world, we are just starting to recover from this war against an invisible enemy which is COVID-19 and now the economic recovery is again at risk because of this war. For one, Ukraine is an exporter of wheat to the Philippines but worst, oil prices will go up considering that Russia is one of the top oil producers in the world. Any sanctions on oil import from Russia will not likely hurt this country since they had an agreement with China prior to this invasion to increase their supply to this country. President Vladimir Putin unveiled a new Russian oil and gas deal estimating $117.5 billion with China in the midst of heightened tension with European customers over Ukraine (source: reuters.com dated 2.4.2022). This could be a strategic move on the part of Russia in case of economic sanctions such as cutting supplies of oil from Russia to European countries.
But what will really hurt Putin is when there will be many casualties on their side. The people of Ukraine are not about to give up easily. Already there are many civilian reservists although this is still pale compared to the Russian reservists. The country has presently an estimated 255,000 active military personnel and another 900,000 reservists. Russia has 1 million active military personnel and another 2 million reservists (source: Global Firepower Index). But still, Ukraine's military today is more hardened for battle and better equipped due to increasing domestic and foreign support and years of low-intensity conflict.
As I was writing this article, there was an agreement on both sides – Ukraine and Russia – to hold talks in Belarus. Hopefully, they can come into agreement and end this war which in just a few days can create havoc in the economy of countries all over the world, especially for a country like the Philippines which is just recently reeling from the adverse effect of COVID-19.
Ukraine may not defeat the Russian military because even with support from other countries through sanctions, it cannot compare to the military size of Russia. But the question is – can President Putin force the Ukrainians which numbered around 44 million to be under Russia’s control? In this war, men and women, civilians from 18 years old to 60 years are being trained for military combat. The spokeswoman of the Ukraine government who is also a member of the National Parliament said in an interview that her dad even though old and sick told her that even if he is going to crawl and is sick, he is going to volunteer to join the military forces, while her boyfriend is already part of the Army. Women and men alike are ready to risk their lives to protect their country from this unnecessary invasion of Russia.
The invasion had united the people of Ukraine and strengthened their resolve to fight against those who want to destroy their independence. And even if Putin will win this war, he can never win the hearts of the people and will likely experience defeat in this area. With the help of nations that condemned this aggression against Ukraine – help in terms of providing material support such as arms and political support including economic sanctions, the Ukrainians will continue to resist the Russian aggression and Russia will never be able to maintain peace in this country, or win the support of the people and create a legitimate government, if ever they will win the war. This is a war that looks like more of bullying of a superpower on a small independent country to bring it back to its fold.
Wars of trying to force independent countries back to where it formerly belongs after gaining their independence are just like Spain trying to get back the Philippines to be under its control again through force.
As I was watching this YouTube channel Wion News Gravitas Plus, I was drawn to this ending statement “Putin wants to revive Russian imperialism. He did not realize that the world has moved on”.
(Wilma Miranda is a Managing Partner of Inventor, Miranda & Associates, CPAs, Chair of the Ethics Committee of FINEX, Treasurer of Negros Outsourcing Services, Inc., and member of the Board of Directors of KPS Outsourcing, Inc. The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the opinion of these institutions.)