Former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV, who is running for senator under the ticket of Vice President Leni Robredo and Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, questioned the accuracy of the recent Pulse Asia survey for presidential race.
On Tuesday, Feb. 15, Trillanes explained via Facebook live the five reasons why Pinoys should be wary of the recent Pulse Asia survey that placed former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. at 60 percent and Robredo at 16 percent.
Reason #1: Dismal track record
According to Trillanes, Pulse Asia has a “dismal track record” that failed to predict the winning candidates in the 2004, 2007, 2010, and 2013 elections.
“Ginagamit sila (They are being used) as propaganda tool,” he said, adding the “impossible” approval ratings of President Duterte that made Davao City representative of the whole Mindanao region.
Trillanes claimed that both Pulse Asia and SWS Survey have both failed repeatedly in the past, including in 2004 when both exit polls said that former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo won in the National Capital Region (NCR) when it was actually the late action star Fernando Poe Jr. who got more votes.
Both survey outfits also said that Trillanes will not win in 2007 but he placed 11th while in 2010 and 2016, the prediction was for former Interior secretary Mar Roxas and Marcos to win the vice presidency.
The former senator stressed that the survey results are “not biblical truth.”
“Kaso (But) it’s unfortunate that mainstream media captivated sila (they are captivated) every time report nila. Wala problema (There’s no problem ) they should qualify it that nagkakamali itong mga ito (they made mistakes) before. Mabibigat na pagkakasala (big mistakes),” Trillanes said, adding that the survey outfits are “not perfect.”
Reason #2: Flawed methodology
Trillanes explained that Pulse Asia divides the country into four regions—NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao—and allocates 300 respondents per region for a homogenous sampling design.
This in itself is already flawed because a homogenous sampling design meant that every province has the same voting behavior, so Balance Luzon can be represented by La Union, or Pampanga, for example.
“Sa Luzon, iba ang boto kada probinsya. Bulacan iba ang boto sa Pampanga. Magkadikit na yan. Kelangan stratify para makuha mo talaga iba’t-ibang (In Luzon, each province has a different vote. Bulacan has a different vote from Pampanga. That’s already beside each other. We need to stratify to get different) voting behaviors,” he noted.
“Hindi pwede (You cannot) lump buong (the whole) Luzon to represent sya ng (for it to be represented) La union o (or) Pampanga. You will not get an accurate result,” Trillanes said.
Trillanes stressed that NCR represents only 14 percent of the total voting population in the country, but the Pulse Asia survey took 25 percent of its results from the region.
Reason #3: Internal survey
The Magdalo Group’s internal survey begged to differ from the results of the recent Pulse Asia survey.
While Marcos still leads the presidential bets, Trillanes reported that the survey, which was completed on Feb. 1, showed him declining by six percent to 53 while Robredo gained six points from 16 percent to 22 percent.
“Maganda ang aming kumpyansa sa aming (We have confidence in our) internal survey,” Trillanes said, sharing that the same survey predicted his win in 2007.
Reason #4: Not real-time
The former senator said there were a lot of “intervening events” between the time the Pulse Asia survey was conducted until now.
The survey was from Jan. 19 to 24, but Trillanes insisted that the presidential forums and interviews conducted since then resulted to a “negative” perception of Marcos and a “positive” one for Robredo.
“One month ago practically itong (this) survey na ito. Ngayon lang nila nilabas (They just released it now),” he said.
Trillanes also questioned that the survey was conducted during the Omicron surge in the country when homeowners won’t let anybody in their homes and there were a lot of travel restrictions per province.
“We question kung totoo ngang nag (if it is true that they) conduct in-person surveys o baka tawag-tawag lang ito (or these are just calls), in which case, convenience something na ‘yan (that’s convenience something),” he added.
Reason #5: Contradicts energy on the ground
The survey numbers contradict what is being felt on the ground, the Magdalo leader claimed.
“Nakita nyo mga rallies ni VP Leni grabe ang (You have seen the rallies of VP Leni, there’s too much) energy, enthusiasm. Tapos nakita mo rally ni (Then, you saw the rally of) Bongbong Marcos sa (in) Mandaluyong halos inaantok mga tao (the people are almost sleepy). That’s not reflective of somebody whose numbers are increasing,” Trillanes said.
Having analyzed past presidential elections, the senatorial candidate shared that he can only compare the energy of Robredo’s supporters to that of former President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III in 2010 and Duterte in 2016.
Trillanes said they expect Robredo’s numbers to increase more in the coming months while Marcos’ will fall.
“In short, we are good. Ating mga kakampinks, wag tayo magaalala (To my fellow kakampinks, let us not worry). We are right on track. VP Leni is right on track,” he stressed.