The Philippines may have "zero or one" tropical cyclone this month, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), citing the monthly average tropical cyclone frequency inside the country's area of responsibility between 1948 and 2020.

Based on the tropical cyclone's historical tracks, PAGASA said tropical cyclones that form in February usually enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) but recurve back to the Pacific Ocean.

Other cyclones that form over the Western Pacific may enter the PAR and move toward the country's landmass but then dissipate before making landfall, it said.

Even with a slim chance of tropical cyclone formation this month, PAGASA said Visayas and Mindanao may still receive "near- to above-normal" rainfall due to the effects of La Niña.

Meanwhile, Luzon will have "below-normal to near-normal" rainfall.

PAGASA said rain-bearing weather systems, such as the intertropical convergence zone, northeast monsoon, and tail-end of frontal system enhanced by La Niña may still increase the risk of flooding or landslides, especially in areas vulnerable to these hazards.

PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said the 2021-2022 La Niña event has reached its peak between November and December 2021 and could be winding down to its "decaying stage."

"La Niña persists and is likely to continue until February-March-April 2022 season, with about 80 percent chance, and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April-May-June 2022 season," she said.

La Niña, which is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific, is usually associated with above-normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and early months of the following year.

PAGASA declared the start of the 2021-2022 La Niña event on Oct. 15, 2021.