Metro Manila's COVID-19 reproduction number dips below 1 — OCTA

Published January 24, 2022, 11:59 PM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz


Metro Manila’s coronavirus disease (COVID-19) reproduction number, or the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, was down to 0.91 for the first time since Dec. 31, 2021, the OCTA Research Group said on Monday, Jan. 24.

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David noted that the reproduction number in Metro Manila was as high as 6 on Jan. 2.

“The reproduction number decreasing below 1 is correlated with a decrease in active cases rather than a decrease in new cases. This means that active cases may still increase even as new cases have started to decrease because active cases are a cumulative of new cases less recoveries and deaths,” David said in a tweet.

“While this is good news and confirms a downward trend not just in new cases but also in active cases, we have to continue to follow health protocols to prevent a reversal of the trend,” he added.

Citing the data from the Department of Health, David said that Metro Manila has recorded 4,018 new COVID-19 cases on Jan. 24.

“At this rate, we could have less than 1,000 [cases] per day by the first week of February,” he pointed out.