OCTA: Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number decreases; new cases could be peaking already

Published January 14, 2022, 10:59 AM

by Charie Mae F. Abarca

Metro Manila’s coronavirus disease (COVID-19) reproduction number has decreased, but an OCTA Research fellow reiterated that efforts from the public should be “sustained” to avoid the further transmission of the virus.

(Image courtesy of DR. GUIDO DAVID)

Dr. Guido David, an OCTA Research fellow said that Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number has decreased from 6.12 on Jan. 3 to 3.77 as of Jan. 10. However, David reiterated that the public should continue adhering to the minimum public health standards because the country isn’t “out of the woods yet.”

“While this is welcome news, it must be emphasized that we are not out of the woods yet, and data in the next few days will clarify the trends. Efforts from the public must be sustained so that the National Capital Region’s (NCR) new case reports will start decreasing,” David said in a Twitter post on Friday, Jan. 14.

He added that the region had 17,069 new cases of COVID-19 on Jan. 13, and it appears that the daily new cases in Metro Manila “could be peaking already.”

Meanwhile, David likewise reported that the surge is in “early stages” in some parts of the country, while in many highly-urbanized cities (HUCs), the surge is “accelerating” or “matured.”

Selected highly-urbanized cities in the Philippines showing the number of new cases reported by the Department of Health (DOH) on Jan. 13, the 7-day average, ADAR, and reproduction number. (Courtesy of Dr. Guido David)

OCTA’s data showed that HUCs with “very high” average daily attack rate (ADAR) were Angeles City (29.33), Baguio City (52.52), Naga City (28.01), and Santiago (26.89).

Moreover, HUCs with “high” ADAR include Cebu City (10.96), Dagupan (24.81), Iloilo City (18.23), Lapu-Lapu (18.18), Lucena (20.55), Olongapo (17.49), and Tacloban (12.53), while HUCs with “moderate” ADAR were Bacolod (8.64), Cagayan de Oro (7.42), Davao City (5.96), General Santos City (4.94), and Zamboanga City (6.15).

Among other HUCs, only Metro Manila has a “severe” ADAR of 117.24.

ADAR pertains to the number of new cases in an area over a two-week period. A high ADAR indicates a high risk of COVID-19 transmission in the area.