Independent research group OCTA said on Wednesday, Jan. 5, that coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila as well as Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon) may start to go down in the middle of the month and towards the end of it if the same trajectory as South Africa would be observed.
But OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David said in an interview on CNN Philippines that at this point there's a lot of uncertainty and variability.
"We're not sure, we're not certain right now if that's the case that will happen in our country, we're hoping it will be because of the high number of vaccinations but the pandemic may prolong depending on how it works, out how it plays out and how it's managed," he said.
He shared that in South Africa, the surge in COVID-19 cases started late November but has already started to decrease by the first week of January. David said that this occurrence actually surprised a lot of experts worldwide, considering how fast the cases rose, and how fast it fell.
"Now, if we're going with that case study, the number of cases might actually start to decrease by the middle of January and then, you know, towards the end of January, it could be already, you know, dwindling or something in Metro Manila, possibly in parts of the Calabarzon area," David explained.
Meanwhile, cases continue to increase rapidly and OCTA projected cases for Wednesday, Jan. 5, to soar to as high as 10,000 to 11,000 cases with 8,000 of it coming from Metro Manila, higher from the recorded number on Tuesday which was just more than 3,000.
On the other hand, the high positivity rate being experienced according to David has caused a strain in the testing system of Metro Manila.
"Apart from the hoarding that's happening with, with drugs, over the counter drugs and medicine, but now the testing system is strained because of a large number of people wanting to get tested," David said.
"So, we are requesting our kababayans to those who are requiring tests. Some of them who may be feeling symptoms should probably assume that they already have the virus with a high number of transmissions that we're seeing right now," he added.