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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider PH records 'negative' COVID-19 growth rate for the 1st time since July -- OCTA

PH records 'negative' COVID-19 growth rate for the 1st time since July -- OCTA

Published Sep 18, 2021 05:20 pm

(GUIDO DAVID / TWITTER)

Independent research group OCTA has seen a slight decrease in the seven-day average of new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases on Saturday, Sept. 18.

"The seven-day average decreased by 2 percent to 20,218 from 20,705. , the country had a negative growth rate in new COVID-19 cases for the first time since July 2021," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a Twitter post.

The Department of Health (DOH) on Saturday reported 23,134 more COVID-19 cases and 255 new deaths in the country.

"Even with a high 23k case count, this is lower than last Saturday's (Sept. 11) 26k ," David said.

"With the 23,134 cases reported by DOH today, the reproduction number in the country decreased to 1.16," he added.

OCTA has been hoping that the reproduction number will decrease to below 1 to see a reduction in the actual number of daily reported COVID-19 cases.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.

Meanwhile, David noted that the country averaged 229 deaths over the past week.

"It looks like higher deaths are happening in some provinces. I am looking into this," he added.

David said he will have to see what the cases will reveal in the next few days as the "trend is not very clear but there are some promising indicators."

"DOH says no . Since this is contentious, I say we give it a few days so the trends become clearer," he pointed out.

Earlier during the day, David said that COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila may have already reached their peak.

"Early indications are that the surge may have already peaked in the NCR , but efforts must be sustained to ensure the trend continues downward," he pointed out.

Based on OCTA's monitoring from Sept. 11 to 17, Metro Manila averaged 5,825 cases, up by just 8 percent from 5,410 cases on Sept. 4 to 10.

The region's reproduction number was also lower at 1.22 from 1.39 a week ago.

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