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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider Current Metro Manila COVID-19 surge has likely peaked, says OCTA

Current Metro Manila COVID-19 surge has likely peaked, says OCTA

Published Sep 18, 2021 09:59 am

The current surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases may have already hit its peak in Metro Manila, independent research group OCTA said on Saturday, Sept. 18.

"Early indications are that the surge may have already peaked in the NCR , but efforts must be sustained to ensure the trend continues downward," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a Twitter post.

He warned that the trend can be easily reversed if the public does not exercise proper caution.

As Metro Manila reported 5,156 new cases on Friday, Sept. 17, David said the current reproduction number of COVID-19 in the region has further decreased to 1.22 from 1.25.

OCTA has been hoping that the reproduction number will decrease to below 1 to see a reduction in the actual number of daily reported COVID-19 cases.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila's positivity rate, or the percentage of PCR tests that yielded a positive result, has slightly decreased to 24 percent from 25 percent.

The ideal positivity rate set by the World Health Organization is 5 percent.

"Due to the backlog, expect that there will be days when cases could still spike. Efforts must be sustained because trends may still reverse, i.e. cases may increase again if care is not taken," David said.

Meanwhile, he said that the country's reproduction number remained at 1.20 with a one-week growth rate of 4 percent on Friday.

The Philippines on Friday reported 20,336 more COVID-19 cases and 310 new deaths.

David noted that the country's seven-day average of COVID-19 deaths is at 204.

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Metro Manila covid-19 OCTA Research guido david
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