Independent research group OCTA said that Metro Manila may register an average of 10,000 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases per day by the end of September due to a "stall" in the declining infection rate in the region.

"We were hoping that the downward trend would be happening at this time but the growth rate has stalled at around 15 percent and this has delayed the peak of the pandemic," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a virtual public briefing on Monday, Sept. 13.

"As for the reproduction number in the NCR, it has decreased but it has stalled at around 1.4 to 1.45. This is not what we were hoping to see," he added.

David pointed out that the "significant" COVID-19 growth rate observed in Metro Manila may have been due to the current interventions.

"It is telling us that the interventions right now is not yet leading to a downward trend. So we are not seeing a peak of cases. I think it's time to try a new strategy that will be more calibrated towards bringing down the cases," he said.

David said the 15 percent growth rate remains high but can be easily contained. "We just need that extra push," he noted.

"If we are able to reduce the reproduction number using our calibrated strategies that will be implemented later this week, we hope that even with the slow decrease in the reproduction number, we can see the peak in the NCR at around less than 7,500 average cases before the end of September, and hopefully, by October, on the way to recovery," he said.

David also recommended the hastening of the country's vaccination drive to reduce the cases of hospitalization.

"With more vaccinations, it could be that even with more cases, we will not be getting a lot of hospitalizations. Then this will be manageable with the health care utilization," he said.