The average number of new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila has increased by 19 percent to 5,998, independent research group OCTA said on Saturday, Sept. 11.
OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the reproduction number is currently at 1.42, which means the rate of COVID-19 infections remains high.
Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.
"Last week, it was 1.41. If it does not decrease, then cases will just continue to rise and no peak in sight," David said in a series of Twitter posts.
David noted that Metro Manila registered a record-high 9,061 new cases on Saturday.
"This is very serious," he said.
David also reported cities in Metro Manila that recorded all-time high COVID-19 cases on Saturday.
These were Caloocan City (869), Taguig City (642), Parañaque City (547), Makati City (534), Valenzuela (439), Muntinlupa (384), Las Piñas City (343).
Meanwhile, cities that have the lowest reproduction number were Muntinlupa City with 1.11 and Navotas City with 1.14.
"It has been frustrating because when we start to see low Rt (reproduction number) in some LGUs (local government units), new cases spike and that causes their Rt to increase," David pointed out.
Just a week ago, OCTA projected that Metro Manila may begin to see a decreasing number of COVID-19 cases by the first or second week of September.
", cases are not yet decreasing," David said.
OCTA said that as long as the reproduction number does not drop below 1, Metro Manila will not see a reduction in the actual number of new COVID-19 cases.