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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider OCTA Research: Too early, risky to shift entirely to granular lockdowns in Metro Manila

OCTA Research: Too early, risky to shift entirely to granular lockdowns in Metro Manila

Published Aug 28, 2021 12:49 pm

(MALACANANG PHOTO)

It may be too early to shift purely to granular lockdown in Metro Manila at this time as coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases remain high, the OCTA Research said on Friday, Aug. 27.

"One of the things we struggle in a large city like Manila is we cannot really control mobility in the way that if you have an ECQ in smaller LGUs say Cagayan de Oro or one of the smaller cities in one of our provinces, it is much easier for them to control the movement of 500,000 to 800,000 people than to control 14 million people," molecular biologist and OCTA Research fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said in a One News interview.

Austriaco said the high number of COVID-19 cases in the country may still require centralized lockdowns to curb further transmissions.

"The concern is that there are other areas that are surging that have not been in ECQ. You have to look at the different numbers and the surging in the NCR has slowed down dramatically which is why the reproduction number decreased dramatically as well. But there are other areas in the Philippines that this is not the case. These large national numbers are really the aggregate of so many different pandemics working independently for the most part," he added.

For OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David, shifting to granular lockdowns in Metro Manila might be a "risky decision" at this time as cases are still significantly high.

"Maybe we could wait two more weeks at least for the cases to subside if that’s what we are projecting to happen. At least when cases are subsiding it will be easier because the momentum is now on a downward trend," David explained.

"But right now, even though the reproduction number is decreasing, the momentum is still going upward and ICUs are still full in NCR. If we open up too early, it’s possible, we could see a resurgence of cases in ICUs," he added.

Metro Manila's reproduction is currently at 1.46, from 1.9 at the start of the surge, David said.

"There has been a significant decrease in the reproduction number. We haven’t seen it yet sa number of cases kasi the reproduction number is still greater than 1. Once the reproduction number decreases close to 1, like 1.1, we will start seeing a decrease in cases," he said.

"The number of cases will take some time, usually three to four weeks before we see a decrease. Ibig sabihin three to four weeks after the start of ECQ or after Aug. 6," he added.

David said OCTA's projection is that there will likely be a decrease in cases by the first or second week of September.

"We are not against the granular lockdowns but maybe we could just wait a little longer before we move into that quarantine classification," he added.

Philippine National Police chief Gen. Guillermo Lorenzo Eleazar on Saturday, Aug. 28, ordered all police commanders to coordinate with their respective LGUs to prepare for the possible implementation of granular lockdown.

Related Tags

Fr. Nicanor Austriaco covid-19 OCTA Research GRANULAR LOCKDOWN Dr. Guido David
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