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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider COVID-19 surge in Metro Manila slows down after 2-week ECQ -- OCTA Research

COVID-19 surge in Metro Manila slows down after 2-week ECQ -- OCTA Research

Published Aug 22, 2021 12:02 pm

(JANSEN ROMERO/ MANILA BULLETIN FILE PHOTO)

Independent research group OCTA on Sunday, Aug. 22, said the surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) has slowed down after a two-week enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in the region.

In its latest monitoring report, OCTA noted that Metro Manila averaged 3,819 cases daily from Aug. 15 to 21, which is 24 percent higher than the 3,088 cases per day from Aug. 8 to 14.

The group observed that the rate of increase in new cases has declined.

Its monitoring showed that Metro Manila's growth rate was at 72 percent three weeks ago and 48 percent two weeks ago.

"The lockdown in the form of enhanced community quarantine helped reduce the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases," OCTA said.

"While new cases are still increasing, the decreasing growth rate is consistent with a decreasing reproduction number. In other words, the surge has slowed down in the NCR," it added.

The current reproduction number in Metro Manila is 1.67, while its value a week ago was 1.90.

Moreover, OCTA pointed out that Metro Manila had around the same level of infection or reproduction number on April 1, 2021, but the current rate of decrease of the reproduction number is slower than the rate of decrease at that time.

"Back then, it took two to three more weeks before new COVID-19 cases started to decrease in the NCR," it said.

The possible explanations for this are the presence of the highly transmissible Delta variant or the higher mobility reported by the Department of Health during the implementation of the recent ECQ.

OCTA reiterated that the ECQ was effective but that efforts need to be sustained over the next four weeks to see a downward trend in new cases in the coming weeks.

"In any case, the downward trend in new cases may happen in the next few weeks but this will require sustained efforts in pandemic management over the next four weeks by the local and national governments and the public," OCTA advised.

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Metro Manila covid-19 OCTA Research
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