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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider Metro Manila's reproduction number up to 1.85 despite ECQ -- OCTA Research

Metro Manila's reproduction number up to 1.85 despite ECQ -- OCTA Research

Published Aug 14, 2021 02:31 pm

(JANSEN ROMERO / MANILA BULLETIN / FILE PHOTO)

Independent research group OCTA on Saturday, Aug. 14, said that the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) reproduction number in Metro Manila increased to 1.85 from 1.76 two days ago.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.

"We expected R to decrease almost immediately after the start of ECQ . This happened last March and August 2020. Either the restrictions are not sufficient--too many people still going about--or the Delta variant is proving to be much harder to stop," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in his Twitter post.

During the Aug. 7 to 13 monitoring period, OCTA reported that the seven-day average of new cases in Metro Manila had a growth rate of 50 percent to 2,901.

Its seven-day average of new cases was 1,930 during the previous week.

The average daily attack rate (ADAR) or incidence rate in Metro Manila was also reported to be at 20.77 cases per 100,000 population, meaning it is already under "high risk."

Navotas City has the highest ADAR at 47.67, followed by Makati City at 37.19, and Pasay City at 29.44.

An area with an ADAR of over 25 is already classified as "critical risk."

Meanwhile, Metro Manila's intensive care unit or ICU occupancy, in general, remains at "moderate" risk.

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covid-19 OCTA Research Dr. Guido David
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