The attending threats to both the well being of the people and the well being of the economy are but a plenty – from the health aspect, including the psychological dimension as morning exercise that was allowed in the previous ECQ is now prohibited - to economic health.

We’re in a catch 22 position as the authorities try to balance the health of the people and the health of the economy. This, amidst the good news that the economy accelerated the fastest quarterly growth in nearly 33 years to11.8 percent on-year in the second quarter of 2021.

While everyone is euphoric about this feat, a situation that most market watchers believe is a natural course since we were coming from a negative base last year, the threat of the more virulent Delta virus dims the horizon for a more robust growth.

The two-week lockdown alone, based on guesstimates, will send the economy spinning, losing roughly P200 billion in economic activities. Because of the spiraling infection that has breached the 12,000-mark on Wednesday, the country is still facing more complex problems. The prospect of an ECQ extension looms, thereby dragging down the economy’s growth momentum.

However, market watchers recognized that the authorities are doing their best to ease the financial burden of the most vulnerable sector of the populace but such a move could affect the government’s spending program that ultimately will eat its way to the deficit level.

The national government may be in dire straits, it's not altogether in penury with its revenue collection falling short of its expenditures as shown by the P716.4 billion fiscal deficit posted as of the first semester of the year, 27.78 percent higher year-on-year.

Admittedly, the national coffers are wanting in revenues to fund the P10.894 billion financial assistance of affected individuals and households in the areas placed under the hardest lockdown. The additional “ayuda” will be funded by the dividends from government-owned and controlled corporations. And, voila, the BSP is the biggest donor.  I believe the BSP, awash with liquidity,  is coming to the rescue. I heard that the BSP remitted to the national government some P12 billion in dividend sometime in July. Very timely!  

 For the skeptic market watchers, the economic managers are headstrong in their belief that the potential is strong for the economy to recover this year. Socio-economic Secretary Karl Chua admitted the attendant risks due to the Delta variant and the ECQ will bring back to the drawing table the inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) to review and fine-tune the economic numbers.

Amidst this, from the point of view of a member of the DBCC-technical working group the growth projection of between the range of 6 percent and 7 percent and inflation rate of an average of 2-4 percent this year are still achievable.

This optimism is actually in accord with the positive outlook of the private sector players like Aboitiz Power Co., its sister company, Union Bank of the Philippines and Converge ICT Solutions.

At the second forum of the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines held Wednesday, officials from these three firms were expecting a rosier business environment ahead despite the challenges posed by the pandemic. “We’re keeping the lights on throughout the pandemic,” said Emmanuel Rubio, president and chief executive officer of Aboitiz Power. The promising outlook goes well with the firm’s mantra #positiveenergy.

 And, rightly so! Just because we’re in a tough situation, that does not mean we will linger forever. Prudence dictates it is best to be more circumspect and vigilant as we continue to fight this virus, which may no longer be pandemic but more endemic, as in we have to live with it. But for now, I believe there is no need for changes as the targets remain achievable.

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