Country's economic potential remains despite pandemic
Published Jun 29, 2021 12:12 am

The Philippines’ economic potential remains despite the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic that continues to wreak havoc in the communities. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) is confident that the gross domestic product (GDP) would return to its pre-pandemic level by next year.
However, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua explained that this target has a caveat, the country should further ease quarantine restrictions, while adhering to strict safety and health protocols.
Before the crisis, the Philippines had strong growth and was on track to become an upper middle income country in 2020, or two years ahead of its target. Inflation was also very well controlled, while fiscal position was the strongest ever, thanks to the tax reform.
In 2020, the swift and massive shock of the COVID-19 crisis took a heavy toll on the Philippines. The economy, as measured by GDP, shrank by 9.4 percent, the nation’s worst contraction since World War II. In the first three-months of 2021, the decline in economic output further deepened by 4.2 percent from a year earlier.
Following the lower-than-expected economic performance in the first-quarter, the Development Budget Coordination Committee, an inter-agency body that sets the country's macroeconomic targets, downgraded its GDP outlook this year to 6.0-7.0 percent from 6.5-7.5 percent.
In a recent forum organized by the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP), Chua along with his fellow economic manager, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III, expressed confidence that the Philippines would finally end its five straight quarters of contraction starting the second quarter.
Chua also maintained that the government’s 6.0-7.0 percent GDP target for this year is attainable, supported by the solid macroeconomic fundamentals that serve as the starting point of the country’s economic recovery.
Moreover, the NEDA chief explained that unlike a war where the productive assets of the economy are destroyed, none of the country’s infrastructure, human resources, and reforms were affected by the global health crisis.
The disappointing economic performance in the past five-quarters, according to NEDA, was due to “an artificial policy” of restricting the nation’s capacity to produce because of excessive risk aversion.
Today, Chua is banking on the gradual lifting of quarantine restrictions and continuous vaccination rollout in helping the Philippine economic recovery and its return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
The Duterte administration has set-out its three pillars that will govern economic recovery and achieve the 7.0-9.0 percent growth band target next year.
The first is re-opening the economy at the appropriate time and allowing an expanded age group to go out with safeguards, including the resumption of face-to-face learning in low-risk areas.
The second is the accelerated implementation of the recovery package, consisting of more than P2 trillion or 15 percent of GDP, in terms of fiscal, monetary, and financial resources.
The third is the timely implementation of the vaccination program.
Let’s just hope that everything comes into place.
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