The average number of daily new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Metro Manila is 56 percent lower compared to the number of cases recorded during the peak of the surge recently, the OCTA Research Team said.

In its latest monitoring report, the independent research group said that the average number of new cases reported daily in the National Capital Region (NCR) was down to 2,454 from the period of April 30 to May 6.

“Current daily average is 56 percent lower compared to the peak of the surge,” the OCTA report said, citing the data from the Department of Health (DOH) COVID-19 data drop.

The experts have noted a “continued downward trajectory” of daily new cases in the region, which remains to be the epicenter of the pandemic the country.

“The one-week growth rate in the NCR was -25 percent from the previous week, compared to 23 percent and -17 percent in the weeks prior,” the group said.

OCTA reported that the reproduction number in the metropolis decreased to 0.70, while the reproduction number for the entire country was 0.86.

It also noted that the positivity rate in the NCR over the past week was 16 percent, from an average of 22,941 tests a day.

Meanwhile, OCTA said that the hospital bed occupancy in the region for COVID-19 patients decreased to 52 percent, while the intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate remained stable at 71 percent.

“The main concern is the continued increase in the COVID-19 ICU beds occupied, currently more than 850,” the report said.

While there has been a downward trend in the number of cases, OCTA Research fellow Prof. Guido David said that Metro Manila cannot afford to have another surge in infection as hospital occupancy remains high.

“We are happy to report that we are recovering nicely in the NCR. Cases are going down,” David said in a CNN Philippines interview.

“But at this point, the case level is still significant and hospitals are still basically have high occupancies so we cannot really afford another surge at this point in time,” he added.

In order to sustain the decline in cases, OCTA Research fellow Prof. Ranjit Rye urged the public not to be complacent and continue observing the minimum public health standards.

“So we are healing already,” Rye said in a radio interview earlier this week. “So this is the time that we should not be complacent and neglectful. We need to be more careful, especially because there is a threat of new variants that can enter the country.”