Herd immunity eyed in NCR, 6 nearby provinces by November -- Galvez
Vaccine czar Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. has set a 180-day target starting this month to achieve herd immunity in the National Capital Region (NCR) and six other provinces.
This could be done by increasing the daily vaccination to 120,000 in Metro Manila, according to Galvez who is also the chief implementer of the National Task Force (NTF) Against COVID-19. He added that if the plan is pursued, the herd immunity could be achieved by November this year.
But Galvez was quick to emphasize that the national target should be raised to 500,000 doses administered per day nationwide. He noted this would be possible once the country receives a steady supply of 10 million to 15 million doses per month.
"Ang target namin, we can have herd immunity sa NCR and six provinces around NCR by November 180 days (Our target is we can have herd immunity in the NCR and the six provinces around it by November 180 days," he said during the mini rollout of the Russian vaccine Sputnik V in Paranaque City.
In other areas of the country, herd immunity is seen to be achieved within 213 days or by the end of the year, he said.
Before this, Galvez proposed to President Duterte on Monday night the prioritization of select areas that are hardest hit by COVID-19 in the ongoing vaccination program.
This, as Galvez said he foresees a constriction in the global supply of vaccines due to surge of cases in India, a top vaccine-producing country, and in other nations.
The government is getting 30 million doses of vaccines from India, which produces over two billion COVID-19 vaccine doses for the Covax facility and exportation.
"In case magkaroon ng delay and we won't be able to substitute the vaccines na kinukuha natin sa mga lugar na makakaroon ng constriction, ang ano natin is to have a realistic target of having arranged of 50 to 70 million (In case there will be a delay and we won't be able to substitute the vaccines that we get from the areas where there is a constriction, our is to have a realistic target of having arranged of 50 to 70 million)," he explained.
With a total population of 110 million, the government is eyeing to vaccinate 70 percent or around 70 million Filipinos so the country can achieve herd immunity by the end of 2021.
However, due to the foreseen shortage of supply due to surge of cases in other countries, Galvez proposed to Duterte the prioritization of areas that have "economic and social importance" in the vaccination program.
The areas that are proposed to be prioritized in the vaccination program include the National Capital Region (NCR), Calabarzon (Region 4A), Central Luzon (Region 3), Baguio City, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Cagayan Valley (Region 2), and other regions with high cases in Luzon.
In Visayas, included in the prioritization are Metro Cebu City, Bacolod City, Iloilo City, Western Visayas (Region 6), Central Visayas (Region 7), Eastern Visayas (Region 8), and other regions with high active cases.
In Mindanao, included are Davao City, Cagayan de Oro City, Zamboanga City, General Santos City, Iligan City, Zamboanga Peninsula (Region 9), Northern Mindanao (Region 10), and Davao Region (Region 11).
The priority areas have a combined population of 83,829,719 and Galvez is thinking of using this lower baseline to vaccinate 70 percent of the said population and achieve herd immunity in the country, instead of the 110 million population threshold.
This would mean that the government needs to vaccinate only 58,680,803 instead of its original target of 70 million people by the end of the year.
But Galvez assured that prioritizing the vaccination of hardest hit areas will produce the same results as inoculating 70 percent of 110 million total population.
"In order to really get the same effect, kuhain natin ang strategic areas. Doon nagkakaroon ng affectation and have the highest economic and social impact (In order to really get the same effect, let us prioritize the strategic areas. That's where the affectation occurs and they have the highest economic and social impact)," Galvez explained.