Independent research group OCTA said the average number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases per day in the National Capital Region (NCR) is now only 1,099, which is 80 percent lower than the numbers reported during the peak of the surge in late March to early April.

During a virtual press briefing on Wednesday, May 26, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David noted that the single-day peak during the surge was 8,000 cases, while the daily average peak was 5,550 cases.

Moreover, David said the reproduction number, which measures the rate of the spread of the pandemic, was greater than 2 in NCR during the peak of the COVID-19 surge but is now down to 0.53.

In the list of local government units (LGUs) with the most number of cases over the past week, the NCR LGUs included in the list are also decreasing, he pointed out.

"Although Quezon City still has the most number of cases, the growth rate has decreased by 30 percent. The average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the NCR predominantly is now less than 10. If we go with the Department of Health criteria, this would mark these cities as moderate risk. Those above 10 are still considered high risk," David said.

He noted that the NCR's ADAR was 25 percent during the peak of the surge.

"While we believe that we can relax restrictions, we think that we should try to retain the GCQ at this time because the cases are still significant. In fact, back in February we were at 400 cases per day but we were still in GCQ so it doesn't seem to be the time to relax to MGCQ at this time," David said.

Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal are under heightened GCQ status until May 31.

"It also gives us the wrong messaging to the people. We want to avoid situations wherein people become very complacent because they feel that the situation has improved significantly that there are no more cases where in fact there are still cases," he added.

However, David cited that "heightened" restrictions could be relaxed in some sectors.

"We could add up capacity especially for business establishments that have been very responsible in following protocols," he said.

Meanwhile, he warned against non-essential gatherings at this time. "We have to look out for social gatherings that may be problematic in terms of superspreader events and outbreaks."

David said the group has also observed emerging series of hotspots or areas of concern all over the country outside the "NCR Plus bubble."

The "emerging patterns" were observed in Zamboanga City, Davao City, Bacolod City, Cagayan de Oro City, Puerto Princesa City, General Santos City, and Iloilo City.