The number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) continues to decline but is not yet down to pre-surge levels, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said on Monday, May 24.

"Yung seven-day average ngayon 1,100 cases na lang per day sa NCR. Yung previous seven-day average nasa 1,200...pababa na talaga ang kaso sa NCR," David said in an interview with Teleradyo.

(The seven-day average is now only 1,100 cases per day in NCR. The previous seven-day average was 1,200 ... the case in NCR is really going down).

"Gumaganda na yung trend natin sa NCR pero may more than 1,100 cases pa rin tayo per day on average. Ibig sabihin marami pa rin diyan yung virus na kumakalat. Mas marami pa nung pre-surge. So hindi pa tayo nakabalik sa pre-surge level. Ibig sabihin may danger pa rin kaya dapat patuloy pa rin na mag-iingat at sumunod sa protocols," he added.

(Our trend in NCR is improving but we still have more than 1,100 cases per day on average. It means that the virus is still spreading. Our cases now are still more than what we had during the pre-surge. So we haven't returned to the pre-surge levels yet. That means that there is still danger so we should continue to be careful and follow protocols).

David reiterated that if the government decides to further ease quarantine restrictions by the end of the month, it should be done in a "gradual and calibrated" manner "because the trends may still reverse and the number of cases in NCR Plus may increase again."

"Gradual and calibrated para maiwasan yung mga sitwasyon na may mga large social gatherings at mga large congregations so yung pagluluwag natin sana maaddress ang mga bagay na to. Gusto natin iparating sa mga kababayan natin na andiyan pa rin yung virus," he explained.

(Gradual and calibrated to avoid situations with large social gatherings and large congregations so that we can relax and address these things. We want to convey to our countrymen that the virus is still here).

David also pointed out the need to vaccinate 7 million in NCR to achieve "herd containment."

"Ang estimate natin para makuha yung tinatawag nilang herd containment mga 50 percent ng population mababakunahan. So sa NCR ang target natin 50 percent ng population, mga 7 million," he said.

(Our estimate to get what they call herd containment is that about 50 percent of the population will be vaccinated. So in NCR, we target 50 percent of the population, about 7 million).

In OCTA's vaccination prioritization rollout model, the NCR, Calabarzon, and Central Luzon will be allocated about 70 percent of the vaccines.

Another 10 percent in Central and Western Visayas followed by 20 percent in the rest of the country.

"Parang ito yung allocation based on risk. Hindi natin makukuha yung herd immunity dahil significant pa rin yung vaccine hesitancy tsaka hindi pa tin eligible yung mga menor natin," David explained.

(It is like an allocation based on risk. We will not be able to achieve herd immunity because vaccine hesitancy is still significant and minors are not yet eligible to receive vaccines).