Finding Answers

The next two weeks are critical. With the worst of the pandemic now upon us especially in the National Capital Region and nearby provinces, it is imperative that the continuing surge in coronavirus infections is suppressed.

The upsurge in COVID-19 cases was evident over the weekend as the daily tally went beyond 7,000 cases – 7,999 on Saturday, and 7,757 on Sunday.  The latest tally of new infections is higher than the highest recorded last year when 6,958 cases were reported on August 10, 2020. And the numbers are projected to rise even further.

“Our modeling suggests that with the current reproduction number hovering around 1.95, we expect both total bed and ICU capacity to reach full 100-percent occupancy by the first week of April,” the OCTA Research group said in its latest report.

Suppressing the upsurge is vital because “reducing the reproduction rate to 1.5 delays this critical threshold by about one to two weeks,” the OCTA group explained.

“Unless the national government and the LGUs take drastic and immediate action to significantly reduce the reproduction number of the surge in Metro Manila, we should expect our hospital and medical front-liners to be overwhelmed within a period of several weeks, just around and after Easter,” OCTA warned in a published statement.

It is beyond dispute that keeping the healthcare system from getting overwhelmed is paramount, lest a nightmarish situation would ensue just like in New York City last year when scores of coronavirus patients were dying at home or in stretchers, unable to find vacancies in hospitals.

To control the upsurge in COVID infections, the government has imposed more restrictions on the general community quarantine in Metro Manila and in the neighboring provinces of Bulacan Rizal, Laguna and Cavite. The restrictions include limiting movement to essential travel; limiting weddings, baptisms and funerals to 10 persons and barring religious activities; limiting restaurants to delivery, take-out, and outdoor dining; imposing a common 10 pm to 5 am curfew; and banning minors from going outside.

“We’re estimating that with these measures, at the end of the two-week period, the numbers would drop by at least 25 percent,” Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said in a TV interview on ANC. “We’re appealing to everyone, if they are not going out because of an essential activity to get the basics of food or water, and to work, you might as well stay home because we all know that the tried and tested formula for preventing the further increase in cases of COVID is staying home.”

The upsurge in new COVID infections, according to Health Undersecretary Leopoldo Vega in an ANC interview on Monday, was because of the coronavirus variants and complacency of people due to the arrival of vaccines. “There really was a change of behavior… people felt they had the confidence to do away with the virus,” he explained.

The “change of behavior” which apparently happened after the much-ballyhooed vaccine rollout starting last March 1in our country is certainly unfortunate, considering a truly significant vaccination program has yet to be implemented in the Philippines.

What has arrived in the country so far were around 600,000 doses of CoronaVac vaccine from Sinovac Biotech and donated by the Chinese government. On March 4, around 487,200 doses of AstraZeneca vaccines arrived through the World Health Organization’s COVAX facility, followed by 38,000 doses that arrived on March 7.

The amount of vaccines that has arrived in the Philippines is a far cry from the volume needed to achieve the so-called herd immunity when around 70 percent of the population is finally vaccinated.

Sen. Panfilo Lacson has put out a tweet last week asking, “Nasaan ka bakuna (Where are you vaccine)?” as he cited the P126.75 billion funding for the procurement of vaccines coming from approved loans from World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

The outspoken senator was my guest in my Teleradyo program Sagot Ko ‘Yan last Sunday, and he said he has not gotten a clear answer on the timetable of vaccine arrival. “In fairness to Secretary Dominguez and the Department of Finance, they already anticipated the crowding so, very early, they already worked to get ahead… but the problem was with other concerned agencies,” Sen. Lacson explained.

With the reality that it’s still a long wait before Filipinos are finally vaccinated  to the point of achieving herd immunity, we have to make do with all the stringent measures intended to control the projected upsurge in cases, especially the relentless adherence to basic health protocols. The time period not only for the next two weeks but until vaccines finally become widely available in our country is crucial. What we do would determine how many of us would suffer or lose our lives.

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