The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) expects the number of jobless Filipinos will not return to its pre-pandemic level next year as the domestic labor market situation is seen to remain “very difficult.”

Based on the Updated Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2017-2022 released by NEDA, the unemployment rate will remain elevated at 7.0 percent to 9.0 percent until 2022, above the 5.1 percent level registered in 2019.

The latest PDP goal is also well above the government’s pre-pandemic unemployment rate assumption of 3.0 percent to 5.0 percent by 2022.

Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said the expected high jobless rate in 2022 is due to “a big additional supply of workers” following the full implementation of the 12-year basic education program, commonly known as K to 12.

 “The unemployment would be temporarily higher, not only due to the effect of the pandemic, which we expect to improve by that time, but also due to the additional temporary increase in the labor force,” Chua told reporters.

Based on the new PDP data, youth unemployment rate will rise from its pre-pandemic level of 12.8 percent in October 2019 to between 14.5 percent and 16.5 percent this year and 20.5 percent to 22.5 percent next year.

Socioeconomic Planning Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon said the labor market situation domestically will remain “very difficult” despite the expected economic recovery beginning this year.

 “It will still be, like I said, a very challenging employment situation, and we think that for 2021, and even 2022, it's still about transforming actually the workforce, so that it will be ready for the challenges of the new normal,” Edillon said.

Meanwhile, Edillon disclosed that the PDP has set an economic growth target of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent for this year and in 2022.

Next year’s gross domestic product (GDP) target, however, is lower than the 8.0 percent to 10 percent forecast announced last year by the economic managers in the cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC).

Asked why there was a discrepancy between PDP and DBCC economic growth forecasts, Edillon explained that the development plan assumption was set before the economic team revised its macroeconomic targets.

But given recent developments, the NEDA official said the PDP slower economic growth forecast will be exceeded.

Despite the PDP revisions, Chua assured that the government’s focus for the next two years is to build a healthy and more resilient Philippines as the basis or foundation for the future. 

 “Our goal remains the same: to bring Filipinos closer to a strongly rooted, comfortable, and secure life. To achieve this, the Updated PDP’s strategies have been adapted to respond to the needs of today while preparing for the requirements of tomorrow,” Chua said.

 “The task ahead is beyond thinking about what to do. It is more about coming up with ways on how we can do it together,” he added.