Last year was a catastrophe for both air travel and cargo while 2021 will be "another tough year".

"There is no other way to describe it," says Alexandre de Juniac, International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s Director General and CEO in a statement issued last night (Feb. 3).

"The world is more locked down today than at virtually any point in the past 12 months and passengers face a bewildering array of rapidly changing and globally uncoordinated travel restrictions," he lamented.

"The situation turned dramatically worse over the year-end holiday season, as more severe travel restrictions were imposed in the face of new outbreaks and new strains of COVID-19,” he pointed out.

Full-year global passenger traffic results for 2020 showed that demand (revenue passenger kilometers - RPKs) fell by 65.9% compared to the full year of 2019, the sharpest traffic decline in aviation history.

International passenger demand in 2020 was 75.6% below 2019 levels.

Capacity, (measured in available seat kilometers or ASKs) declined 68.1% and load factor fell 19.2 percentage points to 62.8%.

Domestic demand in 2020 was down 48.8% compared to 2019. Capacity contracted by 35.7% and load factor dropped 17 percentage points to 66.6%.

December 2020 total traffic was 69.7% below the same month in 2019, little improved from the 70.4% contraction in November.

Capacity was down 56.7% and load factor fell 24.6 percentage points to 57.5%.

Bookings for future travel made in January 2021 were down 70% compared to a year-ago, putting further pressure on airline cash positions and potentially impacting the timing of the expected recovery.

IATA’s baseline forecast for 2021 is for a 50.4% improvement on 2020 travel demand that would bring the industry to 50.6% of 2019 levels.

While this view remains unchanged, there is a severe downside risk if more severe travel restrictions in response to new variants persist.

Should such a scenario materialize, demand improvement could be limited to just 13% over 2020 levels, leaving the industry at 38% of 2019 levels.

Asia-Pacific airlines’ full-year traffic plunged 80.3% in 2020 compared to 2019, which was the deepest decline for any region.

It fell 94.7% in the month of December amid stricter lockdowns, little changed from a 95% decline in November.

Full year capacity was down 74.1% compared to 2019. Load factor fell 19.5 percentage points to 61.4%.

Middle Eastern airlines’ annual passenger demand in 2020 was 72.9% below 2019.

Annual capacity fell 63.9% and load factor plummeted 18.9 percentage points to 57.3%. December’s traffic was down 82.6% compared to December 2019, improved from an 86.1% drop in November.

Air cargo did no better, as demand fell 10.6% in 2020, compared to 2019.

This was the largest drop in year-on-year demand since IATA started to monitor cargo performance in 1990, outpacing the 6% fall in global trade in goods.

Global demand in 2020, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), was 10.6% below 2019 levels (-11.8% for international operations).

Global capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), shrank by 23.3% in 2020 (‑24.1% for international operations) compared to 2019.

This was more than double the contraction in demand.

Due to the lack of available capacity, cargo load factors rose 7.7% in 2020.

This contributed to increased yields and revenues, providing support to airlines and some long-haul passenger services in the face of collapsed passenger revenues.

Improvements towards yearend were demonstrated in December when global demand was 0.5% below previous-year levels (-2.3% for international operations).

However, global capacity was 17.7% below previous-year levels (‑20.6% for international operations).

That is much deeper than the contraction in demand, indicating the continuing and severe capacity crunch.

With the stalling of the recovery in passenger markets, there is no end in sight for the capacity crunch.

Still “Air cargo is surviving the crisis in better shape than the passenger side of the business," de Juniac observed.

"For many airlines, 2020 saw air cargo become a vital source of revenues, despite weakened demand."

Nonetheless, "With much of the passenger fleet grounded, meeting demand without belly capacity continues to be an enormous challenge."

Asia-Pacific airlines reported a decline in demand of 15.2% in 2020 compared to 2019 (-13.2% for international operations) and a fall in capacity of 27.4% (-26.2% for international operations).

In December, airlines in the region posted a 3.9% decrease in international demand compared to the previous year.

After a pause in recovery in Q3, demand is improving, driven by a rebound in manufacturing activity and export orders from China and South Korea. International capacity remained constrained in December, down 25.1%.

Middle Eastern carriers reported a decline in demand of 9.5% in 2020 compared to 2019 (-9.5% for international operations) and a fall in capacity of 20.9% (-20.6% for international operations).

After a slight slowdown in recovery in November, carriers in the region performed well in December, posting a 2.3% increase in international demand.

International capacity decreased by 18.2% in December, unchanged from November.