The government’s limited number of coronavirus vaccines, coupled with logistical challenges and growing doubt about vaccine efficacy, would drag down the Philippines’ economic recovery, Moody’s Analytics said.

In a research note, Eric Chiang, Moody’s Analytics economist, said the country’s recovery from a record economic contraction last year will hinge on the government’s ability to inoculate as much as 70 million Filipinos by the end of 2021.

Chiang, however, expressed doubts on the government’s COVID-19 vaccine road map.

“The Philippines has not yet secured enough vaccines to cover its entire population and faces obstacles such as logistical challenges and growing doubt about vaccine efficacy,” Chiang said in a report released yesterday.

“A recovery hinges on the government’s plan to vaccinate as many as 70 million Filipinos this year, or two-thirds of the population, allowing social distancing restrictions to be lied and tourist arrivals to resume,” he added.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell further by 8.3 percent in the final three-months last year, as private consumption remained anemic even as more businesses reopened following lockdowns.

Chiang said the main contributors to the decline were accommodation and food service activities, which dropped by 42.7 percent, and construction, which shrank by 25.3 percent.

The fourth-quarter GDP brought the the country’s full-year contraction to 9.5 percent, the nation’s worst economic performance since after World War II.

Earlier, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III explained that there is no need to earmark funding to vaccinate about

110 million Filipinos, saying that there are other factors that need to be considered.

For one, Dominguez said that about 40 percent of the population are 18-years-old and below, which medical authorities do not recommend to be vaccinated.

“That leaves us with 70 million Filipinos to be vaccinated,” Dominguez said.

Of that 70 million, Dominguez estimated that about 10 million to 13 million will be vaccinated by the private sector and the local government units.

He also noted that there are people who do not wish to be vaccinated.

In the end, Dominguez expects that between 57 million and 60 million individuals will secure the vaccines that were funded by the national government.

“We have certainly enough funds to vaccinate the 57 to 60 million people,” the finance chief assured.

Asked about when he expects the Philippines could achieve roughly herd immunity for COVID-19, Dominguez said “probably by the end of this year we should be vaccinated the majority of the people.”

According to Dominguez, the government expects drugmakers will deliver initial doses of COVID-19 vaccines this month.