OF SUBSTANCE AND SPIRIT

It is ideal to end the year 2021 with a loud bang of hope. There was so much promise to the other day’s broadsheets report that COVID-19 vaccines now aggregate 200.9 million doses, broadly sufficient for 100 million Filipinos of two doses each. As of Christmas Day 2021, some 47 million Filipinos have been fully vaccinated, or 94 million doses have been administered.

We abstract from one-dose Janssen vaccines, some brands spoiled and others expired. Maybe unavoidable, but with very little resources — some were realigned from other social spending, most were borrowed — further dissipating them on corruption is just unacceptable.

Our spirit was about to be lifted until the task force against COVID-19 disclosed over DZBB that “the Philippines purchased more COVID-19 vaccines developed by western countries as compared to Chinese-made doses.” We bought 40 million jabs from Pfizer, 20 million from Moderna and 17 million from AstraZeneca. Nothing or less from China? Why this had to be explained escapes us because during the radio interview, task force special adviser Teodoro Herbosa assured the listeners that “all vaccine brands, may it be from China or western countries, remain effective against COVID-19.” Without citing efficacy levels, this was hardly reassuring.

The global health scenario remains precarious.Yes, the health experts claimed that “we are far better equipped” than last year to fight the pandemic and its consequences, but the vaccines rollout is disappointing. Some 67 percent of the population of wealthy nations have received at least one dose of the vaccines, and some are now into booster shots. This is not the case in the developing and emerging world. Low-income countries have recorded not even 10 percent vaccination. For WHO, this imbalance is no less than a “moral outrage.” Therefore, WHO’s COVID crisis expert Maria Van Kerkhove should be more sensitive in declaring that “we have the power to end it in 2022” because the poorer populations continue to have limited access to the vaccines. With this inequity, we do not see how the pandemic could be concluded next year when one, the virus could still propagate itself in hardly vaccinated, low to middle income countries; and two, the Omicron variant has been found to be more contagious than its ancestors.

On the other hand, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus correctly observed, the world is not really safe until everyone has some degree of protection. “No one can boost its way out of the pandemic.” Two recent developments in the Philippines also darken our prospects for 2022. First, we had the fourth Omicron case, a woman from the United States who tested positive, quarantined and discharged asymptomatic after 10 days. Dr. Edsel Salvana believed that more of these cases could likely lead to community transmission.True, the initial signs of Omicron indicate some less serious consequences, but if more patients seek medical help, the current capacity of the health system might just be compromised.

And second, our health authorities themselves have reported recently the rising positive growth rate of COVID-19, based on daily reported cases and seven-day moving average. Whether this is Omicron-driven or by holiday partying remains to be seen.

The other reason why it is difficult to be upbeat about next year is the huge damage inflicted by Typhoon Odette on the Philippines especially in the Visayas and Mindanao. Public resources have to be spent on relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction, rather than building new capacities.

On the ground assessment by the International Care Ministries (ICM), a non-governmental organization providing help, hope and change to the impoverished since 1992, shows four million people have been affected, of whom 49 percent live below the poverty line. The staff quoted a United Nations report that 7,000 hectares of farms were hit, innumerable fishing boats destroyed and backyard gardens ruined.

ICM staff also cited reports that some 100,000 homes were lost but the number could be far higher. Some 30,000 schools teaching 12 million students were also affected and based on initial assessments, it would take months to do the repairs.

All up, it looks like Odette might overtake Yolanda as the costliest and deadliest typhoons in recent history. Already, 400 people had lost their lives while the cost is so far running into $1 billion.

We are compelled to focus on both the Omicron and Odette.While the pandemic affects the use of public resources and business activities, the recent calamity imposes additional demand on such limited resources which are not expected to add to current capacities. Economic recovery is anchored on judicious fiscal action.

These twin factors undoubtedly motivate in people some sense of foreboding and unease. But it is hope that somehow brings about the adrenaline to defy probabilities surrounding what is hoped for. Adrienne Martin (2014) who wrote “How We Hope: A Moral Psychology,” published by Princeton, argues that we hope against hope when we put so much value on what we hope for even as somehow, the odds are not too good. In short, we can hope without being optimistic. Across time, we can continue to hope although we are beginning to realize our hope might not be fulfilled.

What pulls down our optimism is the ability of our authorities to deliver. What continues to kindle our hope is our love for the Philippines and the future generation. Should we continue to hope against hope, or should we elevate our hope to faith, the assurance of things hoped for, the conviction of things not seen, Hebrews 11:6?