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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider Manila, San Juan now at 'moderate risk' for COVID-19, says OCTA

Manila, San Juan now at 'moderate risk' for COVID-19, says OCTA

Published Dec 28, 2021 02:33 pm

(DR. GUIDO DAVID / TWITTER)

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) risk of the cities of Manila and San Juan increased over the past week to "moderate risk," independent research group OCTA said on Tuesday, Dec. 28.

In its update via Twitter, OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David said that Metro Manila remained at "low risk" for COVID-19 during the Dec. 21-27 monitoring period.

However, David said that San Juan City and Manila City were placed under moderate risk classification due to increases in their reproduction numbers over the past week--1.82 and 1.57, respectively.

During the Dec. 14-20 monitoring period, San Juan City was classified as "low risk," while Manila City was at "very low risk"--with reproduction numbers of 1.19 and 0.78, respectively.

In its latest update, OCTA said that nine local government units (LGUs) were now classified as "low risk"--Caloocan City, Malabon City, Marikina City, Parañaque City, Muntinlupa City, Navotas City, Pasay City, Mandaluyong City, and Makati City.

Meanwhile, Las Piñas City maintained its low-risk classification.

Five local government units (LGUs) remained at "very low risk"--Pateros, Valenzuela City, Quezon City, Pasig City, Taguig City.

David noted that the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila increased to 126 during the Dec. 21-27 monitoring period, from 77 cases during the Dec. 14-20 period.

Moreover, Metro Manila's incidence or average daily attack rate (ADAR) was at 0.89 per day per 100,000 population, while its reproduction number was 0.92.

The ADAR and reproduction number were slightly higher than the 0.82 and 0.85, respectively, on Monday, Dec. 27.

The test positivity rate was also up to 1.68 percent on Tuesday from 1.4 percent on Monday.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, while the positivity rate refers to the number of individuals who yielded positive results from among those who were tested for COVID-19.

In a public briefing on Monday, David noted that the reproduction number and ADAR below 1 are still "okay" and that there remains no "solid" indication of an upward trend.

"The metrics used are based on covidactnow.org, not the same metrics used by IATF (Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases) and DOH (Department of Health)," OCTA pointed out in its report.

Related Tags

Metro Manila covid-19 OCTA Research guido david
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