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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider OCTA: No indication yet that Metro Manila COVID-19 infections are on upward trend

OCTA: No indication yet that Metro Manila COVID-19 infections are on upward trend

Published Dec 27, 2021 01:02 pm

(SCREENGRAB FROM PTV FACEBOOK PAGE)

Despite an uptick in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infections in Metro Manila, independent research group OCTA said that it has not observed a "solid" upward trend yet.

"In early December, it (reproduction number) was at 0.33. That's the lowest reproduction rate we’ve seen in NCR (National Capital Region). But so far, it is at 0.85. In fact, last week, it was at 0.44. It almost doubled compared to last week. But we have to put it in context that the reproduction number is still less than 1. That’s what’s important. The trend is not yet a solid upward trend," OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David said in Filipino, during the Laging Handa public briefing on Monday, Dec. 27.

"The ADAR (average daily attack rate or incidence rate) in NCR is still less than 1, at 0.82. It is less than 1 so it is still okay. (Meanwhile), the positivity rate slightly increased to 1.4 percent," he added.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, while the positivity rate refers to the number of individuals who yielded positive results from among those who were tested for COVID-19.

"If we compare the figures to the previous December holiday season in 2020, we also had a holiday uptick. So we can't say right now that it's Omicron-driven because we also saw the uptick last year. Maybe it's because of holiday gatherings, so we still need to be doubly careful," David said.

The OCTA expert said there is a need to wait for more data, "probably after the first week of January" to see the full picture of the situation.

"In a way, expected the uptick. Last year, the uptick also happened due to the holidays. We can’t say yet that it's alarming. Let’s wait for more data," David said.

"Despite the increase, we’re still at our lowest figure in NCR. Our numbers are better than last year. I don’t think we’re going back to the time when we had to lockdown because we’ve had a lot of people vaccinated now," he added.

David also appealed to the public to continue to adhere to the minimum public health protocols to prevent a surge in infections.

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Metro Manila covid-19 OCTA Research Dr. Guido David
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