Who cannot be impressed by the size of adoring crowds that adorn every political event where the rule is the more the merrier?
It’s Christmas, the season of joy. It’s also a time of extreme climates – a super typhoon just the icing on the cake after heavy rains prematurely flooded towns and hamlets, and crystal-like frost decorated veggies growing in the Mountain Province. In Metro Manila, life is back to normal, judging by the rush-hour traffic during non-rush hours. After periods of pandemic “ayuda” the poor and needy are eager to open their palms to touring candidates. As DOT ads say, “It’s more fun with you!”
The question is, when Candidate X visits a town and is mobbed by “supporters,” do those same enthusiastic folks show up when it’s Candidate Y’s turn to come calling? As for surveys —?
DZRH’s Anthony Taberna and Gerry Baja had fun interviewing Neriza Nunag, head of the MBC team that collected the responses of an impressive 7,614 registered voters in a house-to-house survey on Dec. 11-12. Ms. Nunag said the Saturday-to-Sunday polling was conducted independently, though not cheaply, i.e., it was not commissioned by any entity except MBC, which has been doing election surveys since 2010.
The respondents were given sample ballots and “voted” by shading their answers. Although the sampling was nationwide, 50 percent of its universe were from NCR, being the most populous. (Forbes Park was not included, but Ayala Alabang was.) The results showed a BBMarcos score of 49.2 or a lead of 33 over Leni Robredo’s 16.2. What stood out was the Solid North’s vote – 75.3 in Cordillera – and how BBM prevailed in every one of the 17 regions except Leni’s Bicol. It looks like BBM’s running mate Sara Duterte is turning out to be his lucky charm.
The next survey, said Ms. Nunag, will happen in February 2022.
What Anthony and Gerry Baja forgot to ask was whether MBC’s 2016 polls predicted the surprising outcome of Malacañang being handed over to the mayor of Davao City. I guess it was because in 2016 the two guys were still with ABS-CBN and couldn’t care a hoot about a rival network’s marketing research. I do remember DZRH’s exit poll on election day, and it was spot on.