“Inflation eases for third straight month.” “PH unemployment rate improves in Oct.” “PH hunger rate eases in September 2021 – SWS.” “World Bank raises PH growth outlook.” Those were four headlines that appeared on the same day, Dec. 7, 2021 – signaling a confluence of factors that point to better days and months ahead for a nation that had been in the throes of a crippling pandemic for nearly two years.

Two were issued by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA); one by a global financial institution and the other by a leading public opinion polling institution. In the past 21 months, the news emanating from these sources had not been uniformly auspicious.

On closer analysis, the slowdown in food costs for the third straight month is the main factor in easing inflation. Vegetable inflation turned negative at – 1.8 percent from 11.4 percent in October. Fish process also dipped to 7.9 percent from 9.5 percent in the same period.

Slower importation and release of inventory pushed average pork prices higher in November, following a four-month decline. Meat inflation slowed to 10.7 percent from 11.9 percent in October.

Non-food inflation continued to be affected by higher oil prices that continue to push transport inflation upward. Government has started paying out cash grants to jeepney drivers who have been hard-hit by the double whammy of high fuel prices and limited mobility due to capacity restrictions.

While the latest unemployment rate still translates into 3.5 million jobless Filipinos, there are clear indicators of a trend reversal as the entire country cautiously treads the path toward normalization. Lower COVID-19 positivity, case fatality and hospital occupancy rates – as higher vaccination rates are being attained – point the way to more vigorous jobs recovery.

According to PSA data, In terms of quarter-on-quarter change, the top five sub-sectors with the highest increase in the number of employed persons from July 2021 to October 2021, were composed of: “a. Agriculture and forestry (1.35 million); b. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor and motorcycles (1.20 million); c. Fishing and aquaculture (234 thousand); d. Public administration and defense; compulsory social security. (102 thousand); and e. Human health and social work activities (84 thousand).”

Higher employment has also led to lower involuntary hunger – or “hunger due to lack of food to eat.” Ten percent of families reported involuntary hunger, lower than 13.6 percent (estimated at 3.4 million families) in June 2021, “11.1 points below the 2020 annual average of 21.1 percent, but 0.7 points above the 2019 annual average of 9.3 percent,” SWS said.

The net result of the three foregoing auspicious developments – lower inflation, unemployment and involuntary hunger – point to a possible 5.8 percent increase in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP in 2021, higher than the government’s previous forecast range of 4 to 5 percent.

We join our policymakers in hoping that the emergent Omicron variant of the coronavirus will not derail our nation’s aspirations for a better year ahead.